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F5 (FFIV) Valuation Check After Persistent Insider Selling and Cautious Analyst Outlook

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

F5 (FFIV) is back in focus after a fresh wave of insider selling, even as the company keeps beating earnings expectations. This is raising new questions about how comfortably investors should sit with its longer term story.

See our latest analysis for F5.

Despite the latest insider sales, the stock has already cooled off meaningfully, with a roughly 23% 3 month share price decline and a 1 year total shareholder return of about negative 5%. However, the 3 year total shareholder return remains strong.

If F5’s insider activity has your attention, this might be a good moment to compare it with other network and security names and explore high growth tech and AI stocks.

So with a cheaper valuation, solid long term returns, heavy insider selling, and a cautious analyst backdrop, is F5 now trading below its true worth, or are markets already pricing in all of its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 16.5% Undervalued

With F5’s fair value pinned at $291.50 against a last close of $243.33, the most popular narrative argues the market is discounting its long term earnings power.

The ongoing shift to high margin, recurring software and SaaS subscription revenue, along with strong renewal and expand activity from existing customers, is improving revenue visibility and predictability while supporting operating margin and EPS growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what this earnings engine looks like in full flight? The narrative focuses on rising margins, steadier growth, and a richer future earnings multiple. Curious how those pieces fit together into that fair value call? Dive in to unpack the assumptions driving this rebound story.

Result: Fair Value of $291.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent fallout from the recent security breach and slower than expected software adoption could easily derail those upbeat margin and valuation assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this F5 narrative.

Build Your Own F5 Narrative

If you see things differently or want to test your own assumptions against the numbers, you can build a complete narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding F5.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.