Changes in Hong Kong stocks | Strong aluminum stocks at the end of the session, and resilience in off-season demand still highlights that institutions say medium- to long-term aluminum price proposals remain optimistic

The Zhitong Finance App learned that aluminum stocks strengthened at the end of the session. As of press release, China Aluminum (02600) rose 5.77% to HK$11.74; Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) rose 3.69% to HK$44.94; and China Hongqiao (01378) rose 1.94% to HK$33.64.

According to the news, Shenwan Hongyuan Futures pointed out that the current macroeconomic sentiment at home and abroad is favorable, and the market is awaiting key US economic data before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. According to the newly released ADP employment data, private companies lost 32,000 jobs in November, the biggest drop since March 2023, far less than the 10,000 increase expected by the market, strengthening the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting.

Shenwan Hongyuan Futures also pointed out that the recent second surge in aluminum was mainly affected by silver and copper. In the long run, limited supply and low inventories have provided substantial support for lower aluminum prices. On the demand side, although the traditional consumption season was low in December, and the overall downstream consumption atmosphere weakened, there was no sharp decline. Demand resilience is still prominent, and medium- to long-term aluminum price suggestions remain optimistic.

Guotai Junan Futures said that in the medium to long term, global aluminum supply growth is still limited, and the market has been in a “tight balance” for a long time. The key risk point is Indonesia's production capacity. Indonesia is planning quite a bit of low-cost electrolytic aluminum production capacity with cheap coal power and bauxite, but the current production scale of production capacity with a definite supply of electricity may still be relatively manageable, and there are still doubts about the acceleration of new Indonesian supply.