After AI, robots are ranked C in the US technology strategy

The Zhitong Finance App learned that after striving to accelerate the development of artificial intelligence (AI), the Trump administration is shifting its policy focus to the field of robotics. According to reports, the US government plans to vigorously promote the development of robotics technology and advanced manufacturing through executive orders, interdepartmental working groups, and industry support policies. This indicates that while promoting the development of AI, the US is expanding its support for more emerging frontier fields.

Intensive release of policy signals

According to three people familiar with the matter, US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick recently met frequently with the CEO of the robotics industry and “fully invested” in promoting the development of the industry. The discussion focused on policy incentives such as tax relief, simplified regulations, and increased federal funding.

Two of these sources revealed that the government is considering issuing an executive order in the field of robotics next year. The order may establish the country's goals in technology research and development, deployment and application, and ethical standards. The move will follow the “Genesis Project” AI executive order issued in November to mobilize federal resources to promote breakthroughs in science and technology, including robotics laboratories.

In response, a US Department of Commerce spokesperson said, “We are committed to developing robotics technology and advanced manufacturing, as it is the core support for driving critical production capacity back to the US.”

In addition to the Department of Commerce, the US Department of Transportation is also revealed to be preparing to set up a robotics task force, and related plans may be announced before the end of the year. At the congressional level, the Republican Party has previously proposed an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act to establish the National Robotics Commission. Although this amendment was ultimately not included in the text of the bill, related legislative actions are still progressing.

Catching up with China's urgent needs

This series of intensive actions shows that the field of robotics is becoming the next important frontier of competition between the US and China. This is also the latest example of the Trump administration's competition with China in key fields such as AI through industrial policies.

Although generic humanoid robots may seem like a sci-fi concept, advances in AI technology are essentially driving breakthroughs in humanoid robots: by processing massive amounts of data more quickly, these robots can take on increasingly complex tasks.

According to data from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), as of 2023, the number of industrial robots owned by Chinese factories has reached 1.8 million units, four times that of the United States. At present, countries such as China, Japan, Australia, Germany, and Singapore have introduced national robot development plans.

If the US wants to catch up, it will need to invest huge sums of money. According to CB Insights data, global investment in robotics is expected to reach 2.3 billion US dollars in 2025, double that of last year. Goldman Sachs predicts that the global humanoid robot market may exceed 38 billion US dollars by 2035.

Industrial appeal and national strategy

The robotics industry has also been actively promoting the participation of government officials and legislators in relevant policy formulation. Industry insiders said that robots are physical carriers of AI, and any measures aimed at improving AI competitiveness should include development plans for the robot industry.

The enterprise level calls on the government to provide tax incentives or federal funding to help enterprises integrate advanced automation technology, strengthen supply chain systems, and expand the scope of deployment; at the same time, they hope to deal with China's subsidy policies and intellectual property practices in related fields through trade policies.

“The US must actively step in to develop a national robotics strategy and support the development of emerging local industries in order to maintain global competitiveness,” said Jeff Cardenas, CEO of Apptronik. According to reports, this Austin-based startup has a valuation of 5 billion US dollars and received investment support from Google (GOOGL.US). The general humanoid robot Apollo developed by it was one of the first human-like robots to operate in automobile factories.

Brendan Schulman, vice president of policy and government relations at Boston Dynamics, stated, “All parties have now reached a consensus that advanced robotics technology is critical to America's manufacturing, technological development, national security, defense applications, and public safety. The investment boom in this field and China's fight for future dominance in robotics are receiving widespread attention.”

Internal Disputes: The Paradox of Employment and Automation

The core issue that has yet to be solved is how to promote the development of the robotics industry at the national level in line with the government's goal of reviving the US manufacturing industry. Skeptics warn that if companies push too much automation, the US may experience a “return of factories but loss of jobs” — factories will eventually be run by machines rather than humans.

According to a research report released by the US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), as the degree of enterprise automation increases, many workers in routine or alternative jobs will face the risk of reduced employment opportunities and lower income.

However, there is also another completely different development vision within the industry: robotics technology and the manufacturing industry form complementary efficiency, and workers will participate in the R&D, deployment, and maintenance of robots, thereby driving industrial growth. This is exactly the development path advocated by some industry insiders.

Jeff Burnstein, president of the American Association for the Advancement of Automation (A3), said that robots can improve workers' productivity, thereby creating more employment opportunities.

“While companies are investing in robotics, they will also expand human recruitment — because business performance will improve as a result,” he pointed out.

Cardenas emphasized, “The future is not an antagonism between man and machine, but rather a collaboration between man and machine. Our philosophy is that robots should enhance human abilities and effectiveness rather than replace humans. Being able to seize the opportunity in this field is critical.”

Basic research concerns: the source of innovation may be eroded

It should be noted that while the government is making a high-profile layout of industrial applications, academic institutions have issued warnings about cuts in basic research funding. Top computer scientists have pointed out that federal policy is moving in the opposite direction in the field of basic research supporting robotics and AI.

According to the American Computer Society (ACM), basic research funding from institutions such as the US National Science Foundation has been cut in recent years, eroding the scientific research system that once nurtured major breakthroughs — and these breakthroughs are the result of America's current desire to commercialize.

Communications of the ACM warns: “Federal government funding for basic research has ignited and sustained the modern technological revolution,” and that the achievements of the past 50 years “never come out of thin air.” The society emphasizes that trillion-dollar industries such as microprocessors, network technology, reinforcement learning, and modern AI systems all sprout from basic research funded by public funds.

Turing Award winner Andrew Barto stated that his winning research was “entirely supported by curiosity-driven basic research funding”; former Stanford University President John Hennessy emphasized that early capital provided by federal agencies was the key to the birth of the Internet.

Eric Horvitz, co-editor-in-chief of Communications of the ACM, said the above case highlights “how federally funded exploratory research has spawned breakthrough computing technology that completely changes the way we communicate, work, learn, explore, and care.” Scholar Margaret Martonosi emphasizes, “Our future depends on such strategic investments.”

Despite the Trump administration's renewed enthusiasm for robotics applications, the American Computer Association warned that without renewed support for upstream research, the innovation pipeline that maintains America's leadership in AI and robotics may continue to shrink.