CICC: Domestic reusable rockets are expected to gradually mature and can be reused to open the era of low-cost space

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that global commercial space is booming in demand for traction rocket launches, and domestic reusable rockets are expected to gradually mature. The bank indicates that large-scale, recyclable commercial rockets are expected to provide sufficient low-cost capacity support for space infrastructure construction, thereby further consolidating the foundation for the development of the commercial space industry. The arrow body and propulsion system account for about 60% to 80% of the rocket's cost. Reuse of key structures can effectively reduce launch costs; at the same time, the application of new technology can further reduce rocket manufacturing costs.

CICC's main views are as follows:

Global commercial space is booming, demand for traction rocket launches is booming, and domestic reusable rockets are expected to gradually mature

1) Commercial remote sensing and communications constellation construction traction rocket launch demand. Global space launches increased from 112 in 2020 to 263 in 2024, and commercial rockets became the main global launch force. 2) Domestic commercial rocket companies have grown rapidly since 2014. Multiple rockets have been successfully launched continuously and carried out commercial launch missions. Reusable arrow types such as Suzake-3 and Tenryu-3 are scheduled to make intensive first flights in 2025-2026. The bank believes they are expected to be a powerful complement to domestic rocket capacity.

Commercial rockets have low cost, fast execution, and clear direction of large capacity, which will strongly support large-scale space infrastructure construction

1) The launch cost is about 30% to 40% of the total cost of constellation construction. Under the commercial model, the unit carrying cost of Falcon9 is only 3,000 US dollars/kg, which is greatly reduced compared to traditional launch vehicles. 2) Compared with the 20-month performance cycle of traditional rockets, the fulfillment cycle for commercial rockets such as Falcon9 can be reduced to less than 100 days, which is more suited to intensive launches and rapid fulfillment requirements. 3) The bank believes that large-scale, recyclable commercial rockets are expected to provide sufficient low-cost capacity support for space infrastructure construction, thereby further consolidating the foundation for the development of the commercial space industry.

Reuse is the key to reducing the cost of commercial rockets. Reusability requires the development of subsystems for traction rockets

1) The arrow body and propulsion system account for about 60% to 80% of the rocket's cost. The reuse of key structures can effectively reduce launch costs. The line estimates that the Falcon-9 launch cost can be reduced to 1,270 US dollars/kg when reused ten times. 2) The application of new technology further reduces rocket manufacturing costs. Most high-thrust commercial rockets use variable thrust liquid engines, and liquid oxymethane is expected to become the mainstream fuel due to its low cost and low carbon deposit; the arrow body structure uses stainless steel to replace aluminum alloy, and the complex structure reduces weight and costs through a 3D printing process.

risk

Reusable rockets have fallen short of expectations; demand for satellite internet launches has fallen short of expectations.