Haitong International: New energy vehicle market with high structural growth and new products drive value competition
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Haitong International released a research report saying that recently, major car companies announced sales figures for August one after another. Supervisory authorities strictly controlled malicious price cuts and competition. The August promotion was relatively stable, and the NEV promotion increased slightly by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 10.7%. It is expected that new models will continue to drive structural growth from September to December, and against the backdrop of stricter industry regulations and restrictions, car companies' competition will return to “value competitiveness.” Considering that subsidies are distributed in monthly installments and suspended as soon as the quota is exhausted, weekly sales fluctuations in the second half of the year may increase significantly.
Haitong International's main views are as follows:
Incident: Major car companies announced their sales figures for August one after another. Supervisory authorities strictly controlled malicious price cuts and competition. The August promotion was relatively stable, and the NEV promotion increased slightly by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 10.7%. As the two new policy subsidies enter refined implementation strategies by sector and time period, the overall car market growth rate has further slowed down.
In August, a large number of new products were launched, promoting structural growth in the NEV market. In August, BYD sold 374,000 vehicles, which was basically the same as the previous year, and an increase of 9% over the previous month. The cumulative sales volume for January-August was 2.884 million units, up 24% year on year, and pressure gradually increased in the second half of the year. In terms of overseas exports, 81,000 vehicles were exported in August, a sharp increase of 146% over the previous year, and the global layout accelerated.
Geely sold 250,000 units in August, up 38% year on year and 5% month on month; in January-August, it accumulated 1.897 million units, up 47% year on year. Among them, sales of new energy vehicles in August were 147,000 units, up 95% year on year and 13% month on month. The penetration rate reached 59%, and the transformation effect was remarkable. The Galaxy brand sold 111,000 units in August, up 173% year on year. In January-August, the cumulative total was 754,000 units, up 222% year on year, providing strong support for Geely's NEV sales growth; Lynk & Co sold 27,000 units in August, up 21% year on year; Extreme Krypton delivered 18,000 units in August.
Sales of Zero Run and Xiaopeng reached new highs, and ideally declined month-on-month. Zero Sports sold 57,000 units in August, a year-on-month increase of 88%/14%, and monthly sales reached a new high. It has surpassed 50,000 units for two consecutive months, and has been on the New Force monthly sales list for half a year. A total of 329,000 vehicles were delivered from January to August, an increase of 202% over the previous year. Among them, the delivery of the B01 exceeded 10,000 vehicles in the first month of its launch, and the cumulative delivery of the C10 has exceeded 150,000 units, and the B05 to be released later is expected to continue the strong product cycle, judging that there is room for the company's monthly sales to continue to rise.
Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 45,000 vehicles in August; of these, the sales volume was 40,000 units, accounting for 90% of the total sales volume in January-August; the cumulative sales volume for January-August was 291,000 units; the new Wanjie M7 and Monsier H5 will soon be launched this month, which will soon set off new waves of 25-300,000 yuan and 150,000 to 200,000 yuan. It is expected to reach a peak of delivery in September, and continued performance remains to be seen. After Shangjie went public, the performance of the “Five Realms” in the last 4 months of this year is worth watching.
Ideal Auto delivered 29,000 units in August, down 41%/7% month-on-month. A total of 263,000 vehicles were delivered in January-August, a year-on-year decrease of 9%. Sales pressure is mainly affected by model switching and pure electric downhill. There is a big gap from the annual target of 640,000 vehicles, and the possibility of meeting the standards is low. The Ideal i6 is expected to launch and begin delivery at the end of September, but the L series, as the backbone of current sales, continues to be impacted by new models such as Huawei, Geely, and Great Wall, and competitiveness is limited until the end of the year.
In comparison, Xiaopeng Motor delivered 38,000 vehicles in August, hitting a new monthly high, +169% year over month; from January to August, it accumulated 272,000 vehicles, with a target completion rate of 78%. It is expected to easily break through the conservative target of 350,000 vehicles and hit the 450,000 vehicle milestone.
Xiaomi delivered more than 30,000 vehicles in August, and remained stable at “30,000 +” for two consecutive months. From January to August, the cumulative total of over 210,000 vehicles was exceeded, with a completion rate of about 60% of the 350,000 vehicles for the whole year. Among them, sales in the last week of August were close to 12,000 units, judging that the subsequent monthly pace of 35,000 units is highly achievable.
On the side of NIO, sales reached 31,000 units in August, up 55%/49% month-on-month, with a significant improvement over the previous month. By brand, the main brand sold 11,000 units; Ledao sold 16,000 units, a sharp increase of 175% over the previous month, surpassing the main brand for the first time and becoming the company's core sales support; Firefly sold 4,346 units, an increase of 84% over the previous month, gradually showing its competitiveness in the high-end mini car market.
In the second half of the year, interest in the Ledao L90 and the new ES8 continued to be high. Demand exceeded expectations, which is expected to drive a rapid recovery in monthly sales. The company aims to deliver an average of 50,000 vehicles per month in Q4. Despite this, only 166,000 vehicles were delivered in January-August, and the target completion rate of 440,000 vehicles for the whole year was less than 40%, making it still very difficult to achieve.
Haitong International said that it is expected that the new models will still drive structural growth from September to December, and against the backdrop of stricter industry regulations and restrictions on downsizing, car companies' competition will return to “value competitiveness.” Considering that subsidies are distributed in monthly installments and suspended as soon as the quota is exhausted, weekly sales fluctuations in the second half of the year may increase significantly.
risk factors
Market competition has increased risks, the stimulus effect of subsidies falls short of expectations, and the macroeconomic economy is declining.