CICC: Film companies' performance in the second quarter was relatively lackluster, and the summer box office grew positively year-on-year
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that in 2Q25, most film companies experienced a decline in revenue due to lackluster box office, while the profit side was affected by cost rigidity and the year-on-year decline was even greater. The 2025 summer box office was slightly lower than previously anticipated (13 to 16 billion yuan), mainly due to the late schedule of major domestic commercial films; since mid-late July, demand for movie-watching has improved markedly with film screenings; the box office and IP derivative business of some films may have a long-term effect, and broad-market demand is expected to continue. In addition, National Day movies have been released one after another, and imported IP sequels such as “Attack on Titan 3,” “Zootopia 2,” and “Avatar 3” are expected to be introduced in 4Q25, which may provide some support for the box office throughout the year. It is recommended to pay attention to the box office performance of domestic films and the pace of introduction of imported films.
CICC's main views are as follows:
The overall performance of 2Q25 film companies was lackluster
In 2Q25, most film companies' revenue declined due to lackluster box office, while the profit side was affected by cost rigidity and the year-on-year decline was even greater. Light Media's 2Q25 revenue and profit both increased year-on-year. Judging from the “Nacha 2” spin-off business or its main contribution, the film also had a long-term effect on the box office.
2Q25: The box office is under pressure, and film companies focus on further cost reduction and efficiency
According to Yien, the 2Q25 national movie market, including service fees, grossed 4.85 billion yuan, a drop of nearly 35%, putting some pressure on the revenue side of all film companies. CICC believes that the second quarter is usually a low season for the film industry, and the reasons for the 2Q25 market downturn also include the box office siphon effect for top films, low supply of content in the industry, and the diversion of other forms of entertainment. However, the decline in profits or losses of some film companies in 2Q25 was better than previously anticipated, mainly due to the good results achieved in cost control. Under the current environment, film companies may further deepen cost reduction and efficiency to improve overall operating efficiency.
2025 Summer Program: Achieved 12 billion yuan in box office, a positive year-on-year increase
According to Yien, the 2025 summer market box office with service fees was about 12 billion yuan, an increase of 2.9% over the previous year; the number of moviegoers also increased by 12.8% to 322 million, and the average ticket price also decreased by 8.8% to 37.24 yuan; the top three grossing films were “Nanjing Photo Gallery”, “The Monster of Langlang Mountain”, and “Chasing the Wind”. CICC believes that the 2025 summer box office was slightly lower than previously anticipated (13 to 16 billion yuan), mainly due to the late schedule of the top domestic commercial films; since mid-late July, demand for movie viewing has improved markedly with film screenings; the box office and IP derivative business of some films may have a long-term effect, and the demand for broad-market movie viewing is also expected to continue.
National Day movies have been scheduled one after another, focusing on the introduction of imported films in the fourth quarter
According to Cat's Eye Pro, as of September 1, key films have been scheduled for the 2025 National Day program, including “Assassination of the Novelist 2” (Huace Film and Television), “Project Panda 2” (sponsored by Cat's Eye), and “Starry Sky of the Three Kingdoms” (produced by Gumai Culture & Light Media), which are all scheduled for October 1. Reserve films include “Catch the Agent”, “Volunteer Force Part 3”, “Battle of Penghu Sea”, and “Land of Use”. Furthermore, imported IP sequels such as “Attack on Titan 3,” “Zootopia 2,” and “Avatar 3” are expected to be introduced in 4Q25, which may provide some support for the box office throughout the year. It is recommended to pay attention to the box office performance of domestic films and the pace of introduction of imported films.
Aspect of the target
I recommend Shanghai Film (601595.SH), Light Media (300251.SZ), and I recommend following Wanda Film (002739.SZ), Maoyan Entertainment (01896), etc.
risk factors
The supply of content falls short of expectations, box office performance of key content falls short of expectations, pirated dissemination, and tightening of regulations.