“Guohai Securities: Giants” The successive layout reflects industrial opportunities and certainty. The closed loop of commercialization of the perovskite industry is getting closer

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guohai Securities released a research report saying that “cross-border” giants such as crystal silicon manufacturers are laying out one after another, and some startups are gradually focusing on differentiated markets such as flexible components. The slow pace of implementation of industry planning and production capacity may be related to technological maturity and fierce competition in the photovoltaic industry. Continuous breakthroughs in efficiency and the successive layout of “giants” reflect industrial opportunities and certainty. Referring to Renshuo Light Energy information, it is estimated that at the mature stage of the industry, when the module efficiency is 22% and the price of a single watt is 1 yuan, the 1GW single-junction module project recouped the investment cost in about 1.6 years. The theoretical efficiency limit of perovskite is high. Technology iterations or drive continuous improvement in component efficiency, thereby improving price competitiveness, and the closed loop of industrial commercialization is gradually getting closer.

Guohai Securities's main views are as follows:

What is the current progress of single and laminated perovskites?

1) Technology iterations drive continuous improvement in component efficiency. In March 2025, the conversion efficiency of Sienna Optoelectronics's 19.48cm2 module exceeded 24%; in June 2025, Renshuo Optoelectronics's 0.72m2 mass-produced commercial module conversion efficiency exceeded 19%; in April 2025, Longji Green Energy's perovskite/crystal silicon test battery conversion efficiency reached 34.85%; GCL Optoelectronics expects its commercial mass production module conversion efficiency to reach 26% by the end of 2025.

2) Production capacity construction has entered the GW mass production stage. It is expected that at least 3 GW-class production lines will be put into operation in 2025, covering single and laminated routes.

3) “Cross-border” giants such as crystal silicon manufacturers are laying out one after another, and some startups are gradually focusing on differentiated markets such as flexible components. The slow pace of implementation of planned production capacity in the industry may be related to technological maturity and fierce competition in the photovoltaic industry. The “anti-internal roll” policy intervention and endogenous technology iteration are expected to drive the development of the industry, and the planned production capacity of over 33 GW is expected to gradually be implemented in the future.

How do the different paths of laminated perovskite compare?

Perovskite laminated batteries: efficiency breaks through single-junction limits, and various technical paths continue to be explored. From structural classification: the two-terminal integrated structure is low in cost, and some single-junction battery technology can be reused; the four-terminal mechanical stacking structure can flexibly select sub-battery materials and processes without considering current matching issues. Compared with four-end mechanical stacking, the integration of both ends requires higher structural design and process compatibility, but the potential for cost reduction is outstanding, and it is chosen by many manufacturers or may become mainstream in the future. By material classification: It can be divided into perovskite/PERC, perovskite/TopCon, perovskite/HJT, perovskite/CIGS, and full perovskite batteries. Perovskite/crystalline silicon laminated batteries are the upgrade choice for crystalline silicon batteries at this stage.

From an equipment perspective, what is the preparation process and equipment selection for laminated perovskite?

The single-junction perovskite battery and module are integrated devices, and the manufacturing process is integrated, and a basic scheme has been formed. Among them, the production quality of the film layer has an important influence on the performance of the perovskite battery. The preparation process is mainly divided into two types: moisture method and dry method; process selection determines the application equipment. The slit coating method has advantages such as good film formation control and safety. It is the mainstream perovskite layer preparation process, driving the demand for slit coating machines. Coating equipment is often used to prepare transmission layers, electrode layers, etc. Laser equipment is the key to implementing circuit connections, and the accuracy requirements are high.

From the perspective of secondary investment, how do you view current investment opportunities in perovskite equipment?

Continuous breakthroughs in efficiency and the successive layout of “giants” reflect industrial opportunities and certainty. Referring to Renshuo Light Energy information, it is estimated that at the mature stage of the industry, when the module efficiency is 22% and the price of a single watt is 1 yuan, the 1GW single-junction module project recouped the investment cost in about 1.6 years. The theoretical efficiency limit of perovskite is high. Technology iterations or drive continuous improvement in component efficiency, thereby improving price competitiveness, and the closed loop of industrial commercialization is gradually getting closer.

Aspect of the target

It is recommended to focus on: complete line equipment suppliers, such as Maiwei Co., Ltd. (300751.SZ), Jiejia Weichuang (300724.SZ), Jingshan Light Machinery (000821.SZ), etc.; coating equipment suppliers with a high value share, such as Microconductive Nano (688147.SH), Olaide (688378.SH), etc.; laser equipment, such as JP (688025.SH), Delong Laser (), etc. 688170.SH

Industry ratings

The photovoltaic industry chain is under pressure, and the contraction of downstream capital expenditure limited the momentum for equipment manufacturer performance growth, and the industry rating was downgraded to “neutral.”

Risk Alerts

The progress of perovskite research and development falls short of expectations, the risk of technological path changes, downstream application demand falling short of expectations, increased risk of market competition, risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, risk of price wars due to overcapacity exceeding expectations. There is a risk that public data used in the research report may be delayed or not updated in a timely manner.