CICC: Independent brands accelerate breakthroughs in the high-end electric smart market pattern

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that with the improvement of the product matrix of independent leading brands and the strengthening of brand potential, it is expected that a clearer mid-range and high-end electric intelligence market pattern will be formed in the next year. The competitive pattern in the 200,000-300,000 yuan pure electric SUV market is the most important. Model Y's first-mover advantage and high share have not yet been broken, but its product cycle is coming to an end, and it may be time to accelerate replacement by major brands. The launch of new models such as the Xiaomi SU7 and Ideal i8/i6 is expected to lead to the gradual settlement of the leading pattern.

CICC's main views are as follows:

The overall passenger car consumption structure in China is stable, and independent brands are making positive breakthroughs

The share of NEV models over 200,000 yuan in sales declined in 2024. The bank believes that it is mainly due to prudent revenue expectations and supply-side price competition. Taken together, the bank expects that there is still a lot of potential market space for NEVs above 200,000 yuan, and there are opportunities for breakthroughs in the market segment. In terms of pattern, independent high-end brands have broken through upward, and the competitive pattern for the middle and high-end hybrid market is gradually becoming clear. The middle and high-end pure electric market has yet to form a clear independent brand leader. In 2024, Xiaomi relied on SU7 to achieve a rapid increase in share.

Looking ahead, the bank believes that the competition between middle and high-end brands may have entered the 1 to 10 stages, extending from building star models to brand building. Among them, the competitive pattern of the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan pure electric SUV market is the most important

Previously, Model Y's first-mover advantage and high share had not been broken, but its product cycle came to an end, and the bank thought it might be time to accelerate the replacement of the main brand. The bank believes that the Xiaomi YU7 is positioned as a luxury sports SUV, with an impressive appearance, strong comprehensive capabilities such as power, energy consumption, safety, and intelligence, and that the launch order has exceeded expectations. The Ideal i8 and i6 plans were officially released in July and September. The bank believes that with popular home positioning, smart cockpit and smart driving based on the pedestal model, and rapid follow-up energy supplementation system construction, it is expected to drive it to break through the pure electric market; with the launch of new cars in the second half of the year, the leading pattern is expected to gradually settle down.

Smart driving will become the gripper of differentiation in the middle and high-end markets in the next stage, affecting the medium- to long-term market pattern and business model

High-end market brands are investing to highlight the intelligent longboard. The three elements of algorithm, computing power, and data are key indicators for measuring the competitiveness of smart driving, and experience optimization of assisted driving functions in high-end cities is the current focus. Starting with the 2H25, it was mass-produced and launched with the VLA. The bank believes that it is expected to increase the upper limit of advanced smart driving functions and drive urban NOA functions to be more “easy to use”. The presence or absence of smart driving and the level of smart driving will more directly affect model sales. In the long run, technological change will lead to the differentiation of capabilities, and may form an intelligence-driven knockout competition. Leading car companies are expected to expand into AI+ companies and implement more valuable business models.

risk

Delivery fell short of expectations; the smart driving feature experience fell short of expectations; passenger car demand fell short of expectations.