China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing: In June, China's logistics sentiment index was 50.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from month to month

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the China Logistics Sentiment Index (LPI) for June 2025 released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing was 50.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, key indicators such as the Total Business Volume Index, New Orders Index, Inventory Turnover Index, Capital Turnover Index, Fixed Asset Investment Completion Index, Employee Index, and Business Activity Expectations Index are still in the expansion range.

The total business volume index rebounded and maintained an expansion trend. In June, the total business volume index was 50.8%. Since this year, it has been in the expansion range for 4 consecutive months. The slight recovery this month was mainly due to improved demand in the eastern region and the weakening of external shocks to the industrial chain in the early stages. By region, the total business volume indices of the three regions are all in the expansion range, but there is some differentiation. The total business volume index for the central region and the western region is higher than the national level, at 51% and 52.8%, respectively. The total business volume index for the eastern region is lower than the national level, but it has clearly rebounded from month to month.

Some logistics sectors continue to expand, and seasonal signs are obvious. By industry, the total business volume index for the road transport, railway transportation, air transport, postal express delivery and other industries are all in the boom range. Driven by online shopping and demand for seasonal fresh cold chain products, the total business volume indices of the postal express industry and the air transport industry are 69.3% and 52% respectively, and the expansion trend is obvious. Research companies in some regions reported that in the aviation logistics business, seasonal fruits, vegetables, and cold chain flowers not only maintained a recovery in total business volume, but also maintained an upward trend in new order business.

The logistics service price index rebounded slightly, but operating pressure still exists. In June, the logistics service price index rebounded 0.3 percentage points month-on-month. Among them, the logistics service price indices for railway transportation, road transport, water transport, air transport, and postal express delivery industries rebounded 0.2, 0.1, 0.4, 0.2 and 0.2 percentage points respectively. Despite a recovery in service prices, there is still pressure on profitability and capital turnover in the face of internal competition and rising operating pressure. The main business cost index rose 0.3 percentage points month-on-month in June; the main business cost index for the railway transportation industry, air transport industry and postal express delivery industry exceeded 55%; in June, the corporate capital turnover index was 50.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from month to month; in June, the main business profit index fell 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, falling for two consecutive months.

Logistics investment is growing steadily, and market expectations are improving and stabilizing. In June, basic logistics investment grew steadily, and the fixed asset investment completion index rebounded 0.3 percentage points month-on-month. By industry, with the exception of the warehousing industry, other industries maintained an upward trend. The construction of key transportation and logistics hub projects progressed in an orderly manner, and the fixed asset investment completion index for the water transport, air transport and postal express industries rebounded 0.5, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points respectively. Looking at the late-stage market, the expected business activity index has been in a high boom range of above 55% for 4 consecutive months. The expected indices of business activity in the railway transport industry, air transport industry, multimodal transport sector and postal express delivery industry reached 55.3%, 58.7%, 52.6% and 57.4% respectively in June.

June entered the flood season. Favorable factors, unfavorable weather, and uncertain demand factors were intertwined, and the logistics development of the industry showed certain seasonal characteristics. Looking at favorable factors, demand for coal transportation is relatively good during peak summer. Trade-in is driving up orders for 3C home appliances, and summer travel boosts demand for cultural tourism, e-commerce, and outdoor products. The data shows that demand in the fields of railway transportation, road transportation, e-commerce express delivery and other fields has maintained an upward trend. However, at the same time, many parts of the country entered the flood season earlier this year, and there was a lot of abnormal weather. Continued high temperatures and heavy rainfall in the local area put some pressure on the efficient and smooth flow of logistics. Judging from uncertainty, repeated shocks to the international economic and trade environment continue to test the resilience of the industrial chain, unstable business vitality and profitability, and fluctuations in related operating indicators.

Suggestions: First, it is necessary to guide logistics demand in line with the new situation, new business formats and seasonal characteristics, and continue to transform the new order business into actual business volume growth; second, to prepare capacity guarantee plans and emergency plans for trunk line transportation and urban logistics during the flood season and summer travel; and third, to enhance logistics “going global” prediction and analysis, and take more measures to control “internal rolling” competition in the industry to continuously optimize the market order.

This article was selected from “China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing Official Website”; Zhitong Finance Editor: Xu Wenqiang.