Astroscale Holdings Inc. (TSE:186A) Analysts Are More Bearish Than They Used To Be

One thing we could say about the analysts on Astroscale Holdings Inc. (TSE:186A) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as the analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.

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Following the downgrade, the current consensus from Astroscale Holdings' three analysts is for revenues of JP¥12b in 2026 which - if met - would reflect a substantial 396% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 67% to JP¥61.18 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥15b and losses of JP¥52.35 per share in 2026. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

See our latest analysis for Astroscale Holdings

The consensus price target fell 12% to JP¥1,150, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Astroscale Holdings' valuation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Astroscale Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Astroscale Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 4x annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 24% p.a. over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 17% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Astroscale Holdings to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. With a serious cut to this year's expectations and a falling price target, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were becoming wary of Astroscale Holdings.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Astroscale Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.