Is MODEC (TSE:6269) A Risky Investment?

Simply Wall St · 07/01 21:37

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies MODEC, Inc. (TSE:6269) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

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What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

How Much Debt Does MODEC Carry?

As you can see below, MODEC had US$500.3m of debt at March 2025, down from US$556.6m a year prior. But it also has US$1.49b in cash to offset that, meaning it has US$988.9m net cash.

debt-equity-history-analysis
TSE:6269 Debt to Equity History July 1st 2025

How Strong Is MODEC's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that MODEC had liabilities of US$2.61b due within a year, and liabilities of US$526.1m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$1.49b in cash and US$571.6m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$1.07b.

This deficit isn't so bad because MODEC is worth US$3.00b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, MODEC boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

Check out our latest analysis for MODEC

On top of that, MODEC grew its EBIT by 53% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if MODEC can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. MODEC may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Happily for any shareholders, MODEC actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last two years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.

Summing Up

While MODEC does have more liabilities than liquid assets, it also has net cash of US$988.9m. And it impressed us with free cash flow of US$695m, being 463% of its EBIT. So is MODEC's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for MODEC you should be aware of.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.