Minsheng Securities: HBM has strong demand for upstream equipment materials or ushered in opportunities to expand production

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Minsheng Securities released a research report saying that according to Trendforce data, demand from NVIDIA, CSP and ASIC is expected to remain strong in 2025, and the global AI server market growth rate is expected to exceed 28%. At the same time, the global HBM market is also growing rapidly, and the share of the HBM market in DRAM is expected to increase from 8% in 2023 to 34% in 2025. Global HBM supply is basically monopolized by the big three overseas companies. The top three HBM suppliers in the world may still be Samsung, Hynix, and Micron in 2024-2025, with a domestic production rate of almost zero. Mass production of domestic HBM is imperative. Currently, domestic HBM may be in the early stages of development, and upstream equipment materials may usher in opportunities to expand production.

The main views of Minsheng Securities are as follows:

Incident: 1) According to CFM data, the global SSD main control market shipped about 385.5 million units in 2024, an increase of 8% over the previous year. Mainland Chinese manufacturers Lianyun Technology and Deyiwei accounted for about 25% and 10% of shipments among third party manufacturers. 2) Micron released its financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, achieving revenue of US$9.3 billion, up 36.6% year on year, up 15.5% month on month; gross margin was 39%, up 1.1 pcts year on year, up 11 pcts month on month.

Benefiting from the rapid development of AI, HBM demand is strong

Benefiting from strong demand for data centers and the resumption of growth in other industries, Micron achieved record revenue in the third fiscal quarter. Among them, DRAM revenue reached a record high, and HBM revenue increased nearly 50% month-on-month. High-end AI servers and GPUs equipped with HBM chips have become a mainstream trend, and can also be used in fields such as high-performance computing and artificial intelligence. According to Trendforce data, demand from NVIDIA, CSP and ASIC is expected to remain strong in 2025, and the global AI server market growth rate is expected to exceed 28%. At the same time, the global HBM market is also growing rapidly, and the share of the HBM market in DRAM is expected to increase from 8% in 2023 to 34% in 2025.

The big three overseas companies monopolize the market, and the domestic production rate is almost zero

Global HBM supply is basically monopolized by the big three overseas companies. The top three HBM suppliers in the world may still be Samsung, Hynix, and Micron in 2024-2025, with a domestic production rate of almost zero. According to Trendforce data, in 2024, Samsung, Hynix, and Micron's TSV production capacity at HBM was 120,000 pieces/month, 120,000 tablets/month, and 25,000 tablets/month respectively. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 170,000 tablets/month, 150,000 tablets/month, and 45,000 tablets/month, respectively. Looking at HBM generations, the usage of HBM3e is expected to increase dramatically in 2025, accounting for 85%.

The manufacturing process is the core barrier, and emphasis is placed on industrial chain development opportunities

Looking at the industrial chain, the upstream HBM industry mainly includes semiconductor raw materials such as electroplating solutions, precursors, IC carriers, etc., and semiconductor equipment suppliers such as TSV equipment and testing equipment; the midstream is HBM's production, and downstream application areas include artificial intelligence, data centers, and high-performance computing. In HBM manufacturing, the TSV process is the main difficulty. It involves complex processes such as lithography, gluing, and etching, and is the most valuable process. On the one hand, the US may continue to increase restrictions on HBM procurement, and domestic manufacturers of upstream equipment and materials are expected to usher in development opportunities; on the other hand, US restrictions and the urgency of domestic autonomy and control are expected to accelerate breakthroughs in domestic HBM.

Investment advice

Mass production of domestic HBM is imperative. Currently, domestic HBM may be in the early stages of development, and upstream equipment materials may usher in opportunities to expand production. Recommended attention: 1) HBM equipment: Jingzhida (688627.SH), Huahai Qingke (688120.SH), Xinyuanwei (688037.SH), Tuojing Technology (), China Micro (Dubai), etc.; 2) Materials: Dinglong Co., Ltd. (300054.SZ), Jacques Technology (002409.SZ), Huahai Chengke (Sichuan), Lianrui New Materials (logistics), etc. 688072.SH 688012.SH 688535.SH 688300.SH

Risk Alerts

The development of equipment materials fell short of expectations; the progress of HBM localization fell short of expectations.