Cui Dongshu: From January to May, China accounted for 68% of the world's NEVs, 13% of the share of autonomous overseas new energy

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on June 30, Cui Dongshu published an article stating that in January-May 2025, world car sales will reach 37.99 million units and 7.89 million new energy vehicles. The global NEV sales ratio reached 27.7% from January to May 2025, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the full year of 2024, while NEVs in the narrow sense reached 20.8%, showing a relatively strong state. From January to May 2025, the share of new energy vehicles reached 20.8%, of which pure electric vehicles reached 13.7%, plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 7.1%, hybrid vehicles accounted for 6.9%, and the share of oil-electric hybrids temporarily increased.

From January to May 2025, the world's new energy passenger vehicles reached 7.72 million units, an increase of 33% over the previous year. In May, the world reached 1.74 million new energy passenger vehicles, up 29% year on year and 6% month on month. From January to May of this year, sales of new energy in the US grew by 4% at a rate of 710,000 units, which is the lowest growth rate in recent years. Due to concerns about price increases due to imminent implementation of high tariffs, sales of new energy vehicles in the US fell by 7% in May, and the increase was weak by 2% over the previous month. New energy passenger vehicles in Europe sold 1.4 million units in January-May this year, an increase of 260,000 units over the same period last year, an increase of 23%. According to preliminary statistics, Europe's new energy passenger vehicles were 270,000 in May, an increase of 22%.

In 2025, China's share of NEV passenger vehicles in the world was 68.3%. Among them, in May, China's NEV global share continued to maintain a high share of 70.4%, an increase of 3 percentage points over the same period. China accounted for nearly 80% of the increase or decrease in the world's new energy contribution from January to May 2025, Germany and France each accounted for 4% of the increase, and the US and Turkey each accounted for 2%. In fact, all other countries experienced a relative decline in their incremental contributions. Therefore, the overall incremental contribution of new energy vehicles in the world is basically in China. China has contributed about 80% of the world's growth in recent years, and the Chinese car market is the core focus of the world's NEV competition.

In May 2025, the overseas market sales share of autonomous new energy passenger vehicles was 14.8%. Due to the good performance of autonomous new energy exports, the overseas sales share of autonomous new energy passenger vehicles rose significantly from 9.5% in 2024 to 12.7% in January-May of this year.

Of the new energy penetration rate from April to May 2025, China's NEV penetration rate reached 45%, Germany reached 26%, Norway reached 81%, the UK 30%, while the US was only 9% and Japan was only 2%, so the imbalance in the world's NEV development is extremely obvious.

I. Global NEV trends

1. World NEV performance in 2025

In 2024, the world sold 91.77 million units, of which new energy vehicles sold 18.24 million units, and the share of total fuel vehicle sales declined relatively. From January to May 2025, world automobile sales reached 37.99 million units, and new energy vehicles reached 7.89 million units.

2. World automobile energy structure

The global NEV sales ratio reached 27.7% from January to May 2025, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the full year of 2024, while NEVs in the narrow sense reached 20.8%, showing a relatively strong state.

From January to May 2025, the share of new energy vehicles reached 20.8%, of which pure electric vehicles reached 13.7%, plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 7.1%, hybrid vehicles accounted for 6.9%, and the share of oil-electric hybrids temporarily increased.

3. The world's new energy vehicle structure

The world's NEV structure is dominated by passenger vehicles in the narrow sense of the word. From January to May 2025, the share reached 97%, while NEV commercial vehicles accounted for 3.2%.

Among new energy passenger cars, sedans account for 38%, SUVs account for 53%, and MPVs account for a relatively low proportion. SUVs are currently the main energy source in the world.

As sales of new energy pickups in the US and China increased, the share of new energy pickups reached 1.2%.

II. Trends in the world's new energy passenger vehicles

1. Trends in the world's new energy passenger vehicle market

The world's new energy vehicles faced high base pressure in the first half of 2020, and the second half of the year began to enter a low base stage, laying the foundation for a new energy growth cycle that continues to this day. The upward trend was accelerated in 2021-2024, and growth was stronger at a low base.

The world's new energy vehicles started low in 2025, then resumed high growth in February-May. Due to the early Spring Festival, sales of new energy in China were low at the beginning of the year, and high growth resumed in February-May after the Spring Festival, relying on national scrapping, renewal and trade-in policies.

2. World New Energy Passenger Vehicle Performance in 2025

Sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2.87 million units in 2020, and the trend increased by 42% compared with the same period in 2019. Sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 6.37 million units in 2021, a strong performance that exceeded expectations by 122%. The trend of new energy passenger vehicles in the world was strong in 2022, reaching 10.39 million units for the whole year, an increase of 63% over the previous year. The trend of new energy passenger vehicles in the world was strong in 2023, reaching 13.82 million units for the whole year, an increase of 33% over the previous year. In 2024, the world's new energy passenger vehicles reached 17.66 million, an increase of 28% over the previous year. Because the trend of new energy in Europe and the US is slowing down, the world's new energy has slowed significantly compared to previous years. From January to May 2025, the world's new energy passenger vehicles reached 7.72 million units, an increase of 33% over the previous year. In May, the world reached 1.74 million new energy passenger vehicles, up 29% year on year and 6% month on month.

3. Overseas NEV passenger vehicle market trends

The overall trend of new energy in markets outside of China is weak. The trend of new energy in the US is poor this year. Due to the recovery of new energy trends in Europe and the US, the growth rate reached 24% in January-May, which is better than the performance in 2024.

The overseas trend from January to May this year was relatively stable, forming a relatively good trend in the overseas new energy market.

Currently, in mainstream markets that can be counted overseas, the overall performance of independent brands of new energy products in overseas market analysis continues to strengthen. In 2021, China's own-brand NEVs had 1.8% overseas market share; in 2022, it rose to 4.7%, an increase of 2.9 points; in 2023, it rose to 7.9%, an increase of 3.2 points; in 2024, the overseas sales share of autonomous new energy passenger vehicles was 9.5%.

In May 2025, the overseas market sales share of autonomous new energy passenger vehicles was 14.8%. Due to the good performance of autonomous new energy exports, the overseas sales share of autonomous new energy passenger vehicles rose significantly from 9.5% in 2024 to 12.7% in January-May of this year.

Judging from regional market trends for new energy vehicles, Europe has always accelerated its upward trend in 2020, surpassing China. The European NEV market grew steadily at an overall high level in 2021-2023, while China's NEV market has continued to trend strongly in recent years.

China's decline in January-February of this year was temporary; it picked up in March-May. China's new energy sector has been growing steadily this year; Europe and North America are far weaker than China's trend.

US new energy passenger vehicles include pickup truck data. The overall trend picked up in March due to tariff factors, and declined in April-May. Early experimenters and environmentalists in Europe and the US have already purchased electric vehicles, and the US government has removed subsidies for new energy vehicles, which has had a great impact on new energy sources in the US. Even if Tesla liberalizes the use of autonomous driving, the increase in sales penetration rate has not met expectations.

From January to May of this year, sales of new energy in the US grew by 4% at a rate of 710,000 units, which is the lowest growth rate in recent years. Due to concerns about price increases due to imminent implementation of high tariffs, sales of new energy vehicles in the US fell by 7% in May, and the increase was weak by 2% over the previous month.

Sales of new energy vehicles in Europe from January to May were relatively low. The market is relatively good this year. Currently, against the backdrop of a sluggish economy and consumption, the growth pressure on European NEVs is still strong.

New energy passenger vehicles in Europe sold 1.4 million units in January-May this year, an increase of 260,000 units over the same period last year, an increase of 23%. According to preliminary statistics, Europe's new energy passenger vehicles were 270,000 in May, an increase of 22%.

Electric vehicles and zero/low emission vehicles registered on or after April 1, 2025: The tax rate is £10 for the first year; the standard rate for the second year is £195. Most electric vans switch to the standard annual tax rate for light goods vehicles. An annual minimum engine displacement tax rate applies to electric motorcycles and tricycles. Newly registered electric vehicles with a list price of over £40,000 will pay an additional tax on luxury cars for the first 5 years. From April 1, eligible electric vehicles in the UK market will be subject to expensive vehicle surcharges, and the cost of ownership for most electric vehicle owners may increase by more than £2,000 in the next six years, so UK electric vehicle sales performed well in March this year.

Market demand is weak as European consumers face high interest rates, slowing economic growth, and financial subsidies for new energy vehicles are being phased out, and insufficient charging infrastructure is still an important factor limiting their widespread development.

4. New energy penetration rate in countries around the world

The overall penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the world is showing a rapid upward trend. It has reached 13% in 2022, 16% in 2023, and 19.2% in 2024. Only 22% in the second quarter of 2025. Of the new energy penetration rate from April to May 2025, China's NEV penetration rate reached 45%, Germany reached 26%, Norway reached 81%, the UK 30%, while the US was only 9% and Japan was only 2%, so the imbalance in the world's NEV development is extremely obvious.

As China continues to strengthen the development of new energy sources and Europe and the United States weaken their incentive policies for new energy sources, the world's new energy vehicles have entered a new stage of differentiated development.

5. Contribution of new energy sales in countries around the world

In 2024, China's new energy passenger vehicles contributed 95% of the world's NEVs. The UK, Brazil, and the US all contributed about 2%, and Indonesia 1%. China accounted for 80% of the increase or decrease of 1.83 million new energy units in the world from January to May 2025, Germany and France each accounted for 4% of the increase, and the US and Turkey each accounted for 2%. In fact, the incremental contributions of other countries all showed a relative decline. Therefore, the overall incremental contribution of new energy vehicles in the world is basically in China. China has contributed about 80% of the world's growth in recent years, and the Chinese car market is the core focus of the world's NEV competition.

III. Structural characteristics of the world's new energy passenger vehicles

1. Trends in the world's new energy passenger vehicle market

The European new energy market throughout 2021 was affected by the epidemic, and the growth of new energy sources was weak. 2022 is still affected by the pandemic. Europe's share in 2022 fell significantly from 2021, and Europe's share continued to decline slightly in 2023-2024. From January to May 2025, Europe's global share of new energy sources reached 18%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over 16.6% in the same period last year.

Recently, the growth rate of China's new energy passenger vehicles is stronger than the world average growth rate. In 2020, the world share of new energy passenger vehicles in China reversed significantly. China maintained a strong level of 52.4% throughout the year in 2021; China's share of NEVs in the world exceeded 63% in 2022; China's share of the world share in 2023; continued to sprint to 70.1% in 2024, of which 67.4% in the second quarter of 2024; in 2025, China's NEV world share continued to be 68.3%, with China's NEV world share continuing to maintain a high share of 70.4% in May, an increase of 3 percentage points over the same period.

2. New energy vehicle share trends among manufacturers

Looking at sales share over the years, China's BYD (01211) is leading the world, China's Geely (00175) has risen rapidly, and Tesla (TSLA.US) has not performed well and has declined to third place. Recently, two autonomous vehicle companies, SAIC Motor Group Passenger Car and SAIC Wuling, have performed relatively smoothly overseas.

Geely Automobile and Changan New Energy have strengthened significantly recently. German Volkswagen's new energy vehicles performed well, and the BMW Group, Korea Hyundai, etc. dropped to the third-tier level.

Competition in the new energy wave for luxury cars is relatively intense, and Tesla's performance in the US is slowing down. Currently, the trend of BMW and Mercedes-Benz performance cars is average.

The overall performance of China's new energy and traditional car companies strengthened. In particular, Changan (000625.SZ) and Zero Run (09863) performed particularly well.

IV. Market trends of pure electric new energy vehicle structures

1. Pure electric world structure

China's share performance in the global pure electric vehicle market is relatively stable, with a share of around 60% in 2017-2018; the share declined slightly in 2019-2020, falling to 48.5% share in 2020; in 2022, it rebounded to 65.9%; the share in 2023-2024 was below the 65% share level; from January to May 2025, China's share of the global pure electric vehicle market was 64.4%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points over the second quarter of 2024.

The share of pure electric vehicles in Europe rose from 16% in 2018 to 23% in 2019, 35% in 2020, fell to 20% in 2023, and fell relatively to 18.7% from January to May 2025. The share of electric vehicles in the US fell by 9.2% this year, and performance declined.

2. Trends in car companies' share

Judging from car companies' share of pure electric vehicles, BYD's share continues to rise overall. The overall share level remained above 7% from 2017-2021, but the 2022 share rose to 12%, the 2023 share rose to 17%, and the 2024-2025 share surpassed 19%.

Tesla's share of pure electric vehicles is relatively strong, but BYD's pure electric vehicles surpassed Tesla. Tesla's share level of around 23% in 2020 has remained low at 13%.

Geely Group's share rose from 4% in 2019 to 12% in 2025. SAIC Motor's share of pure electric vehicles has declined slightly recently, and GAC Group and Changan pure electric have been relatively stable.

5. Market trends in plug-in hybrid new energy vehicle structures

1. Mixed world structure

China's share of plug-in hybrid performance in the world continues to strengthen. In 2017-2018, it was between 30% and 50%, falling to 25% in 2020, China's share of plug-in hybrids in the world was 32% in 2021, rising to 56% in 2022, 69% in 2023, 79% in 2024, and reaching a high level of 76% from January to May 2025. China showed excellent performance in the world plug-in hybrid market.

Europe's share of plug-in hybrids rose from 28% in 2018 to 65% in 2020, and fell to 16.5% in 2025.

2. Trends in car companies' share

Judging from the car companies' share of plug-in hybrids, BYD had the most outstanding performance. BYD's share of the world's plug-in hybrid fell to a low level of 6% in 2020, but it rose to 16% in 2021, and to 36% of the world's plug-in hybrid share in 2023. In 2024, BYD's share of 39% was very good. This year's share remained at 36% in January-May, reflecting BYD's leading performance in the plug-in hybrid market.

German Volkswagen's share of plug-in hybrids rose sharply to 16% in 2020, and fell to 5% in 2025. BMW's share of plug-in hybrids has also declined markedly in the past two years, falling to 2.6% in 2025, and Geely Volvo's plug-in hybrid accounts for 9% of the world.

6. Hybrid vehicle structure market trends

1. The mixed world structure

China's hybrid developed rapidly in the first two years and became the world's largest hybrid market in 2022. With the rise of hybrid, China's share of hybrid power in the world has declined since 2023, and the US hybrid market has rebounded.

2. The share trend of mixed enterprises

The hybrid market is strongly dominated by Japan and South Korea. Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Hyundai have strong hybrid performance, accounting for 94% in 2025, and most other companies have a hybrid share of less than 1%. Recently, Toyota and Mazda performed well in the hybrid market share in 2025.