Kalyani Investment Company Limited (NSE:KICL) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. Looking further back, the 25% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.
Following the firm bounce in price, Kalyani Investment's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 32.5x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in India, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 29x and even P/E's below 16x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.
It looks like earnings growth has deserted Kalyani Investment recently, which is not something to boast about. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the benign earnings growth will improve to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
See our latest analysis for Kalyani Investment
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Kalyani Investment's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any earnings per share growth to speak of for the company over the past year. Still, the latest three year period was better as it's delivered a decent 25% overall rise in EPS. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.
Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 23% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.
With this information, we find it concerning that Kalyani Investment is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
Kalyani Investment shares have received a push in the right direction, but its P/E is elevated too. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of Kalyani Investment revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Our free balance sheet analysis for Kalyani Investment with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.