APEI to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

American Public Education, Inc. APEI is slated to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 12, after market close.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings per share (EPS) and revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 16.7% and 1.6%, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, the top line grew 1.5%, but the bottom line decreased 1.6%.

The company’s earnings topped the consensus mark in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 96.3%.

How are Estimates Placed for APEI Stock?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter EPS has remained stable at 15 cents in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates an improvement from a loss per share of 6 cents in the year-ago quarter. (Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $161.9 million, indicating a 4.9% year-over-year rise.

Factors to Shape American Public’s Q1 Results

Enrollments & Revenues

American Public’s first-quarter revenues are expected to have increased year over year, driven by strong performance across all segments. The company has been witnessing strong enrollment at American Public University System segment or APUS (which accounted for 50.8% of total fourth-quarter 2024 revenues) and Hondros College of Nursing segment or HCN (which accounted for 10.8%), along with improvement at Rasmussen University or RU (which accounted for 34.6%). Also, select tuition and fee increases, combined with the positive impact of cost reductions and realignments, are likely to have added to growth.

For the first quarter, APEI expects total revenues to increase 4-6% year over year to $161-$163 million.
 
The company expects the APUS segment’s total net course registrations to be 100,500-102,000, reflecting growth of 1.5-3% year over year. This upside is likely to have been driven by increased student registrations in military-affiliated programs. HCN’s total enrollment is expected to increase 10% from the prior-year figure to 3,600 students. RU’s student enrollment is expected to be up 7% from the year-ago quarter’s figure to 14,500. Within RU, on-ground student enrollment is likely to increase 3% to 6,500, while online student enrollment is expected to rise 11% to 8,000 year over year.

For the first quarter, we expect revenues in the APUS and HCN segments to increase 2.1% to $82.3 million and 9.5% to $18 million, respectively, year over year. Our model predicts that the RU segment’s revenues will grow 7.9% to $57.3 million year over year.

Margins

Although the company's bottom line is likely to have improved in the first quarter, earnings remain under pressure as the GSUSA segment continues to post negative adjusted EBITDA.

The company expects net income between $1.7 million and $3.1 million (against a loss of $1 million a year ago). APEI anticipates adjusted EPS to be between 9 cents and 17 cents against a loss of 6 cents reported a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be within $13.5-$15.5 million, a decline of 21-9% year over year.

For the to-be-reported quarter, we expect adjusted EBITDA to decline 12.1% to $15 million and adjusted EBITDA margins to decline 170 basis points to 9.3% from a year ago.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for APEI Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for American Public this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here, as you will see below.

APEI’s Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

APEI’s Zacks Rank: American Public currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer-Discretionary space that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat estimates this time around.

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited ATAT has an Earnings ESP of +6.45% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Atour Lifestyle is expected to register 19.2% growth in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 5.2%.

Choice Hotels International, Inc. CHH currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.94% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Choice Hotels’ earnings are expected to increase 7.8%. Choice Hotels’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 7.5%.

Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. MODG currently has an Earnings ESP of +20.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Topgolf Callaway’s earnings are expected to decrease 144.4%. Topgolf Callaway’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the preceding quarter by 244.7%.

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American Public Education, Inc. (APEI): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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