The tipping point of the trade war between the US and Europe is about to reach the EU's 100 billion tariff

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the EU is planning to impose tariffs on US exports worth 95 billion euros (108 billion US dollars), provided that trade negotiations with the Trump administration team fail to achieve satisfactory results.

The proposed retaliatory measures would specifically target industrial products, including Boeing aircraft, American cars, and bourbon whiskey — of which bourbon was removed from the previous list.

The new proposal will be discussed with member states and other stakeholders by June 10, and adjustments may be made to the final version.

The European Commission, the EU executive body responsible for trade affairs, began negotiations with the US government this week and is still committed to finding a friendly solution to Trump's tariff campaign. Commission officials are expected to provide Washington with a “menu” with options such as lowering trade and non-tariff barriers and increasing investment in the US. These options may be transformed into formal proposals.

At present, negotiations between the two sides have made little progress, and it is expected that most of the US tariffs will remain as they are. The EU said this week that Trump's ongoing trade investigation will raise the total amount of goods facing the EU's new tariffs to 549 billion euros.

European Commission President von der Leyen stressed in a statement: “We remain fully committed to reaching an agreement through negotiations, and believe we can reach mutually beneficial agreements for consumers and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, we continue to prepare for all possibilities, and the consultations that begin today will guide this necessary work.”

The EU's product list does not specify specific tariff levels. According to senior EU officials, the decision on the tax rate and quantity will be made after four weeks of consultation and will depend on the outcome of the negotiations. In addition to the proposed tariffs, the committee will also seek advice on restricting exports of €4.4 billion worth of scrap steel and chemical products to the US, confirming Bloomberg's report last month.

Such measures can usually be implemented in a variety of ways, from quotas, licenses to specific commodity embargoes.

The committee statement said it will file a lawsuit with the WTO over Washington's so-called 10% “reciprocal” tariff and a 25% surtax on automobiles and parts, arguing that these measures “blatantly violate the basic rules of the WTO.” Trump is trying to restructure the global trading system, treating trade imbalances between the US and other countries as evidence of unfair treatment.

Although its policy is mainly reflected in erratic tariff actions, the US government is also advancing agreement negotiations. Trump announced an agreement with Britain on Thursday.

Trends in global trade flows continue to be volatile due to Trump's policies. The EU said on Thursday that it will monitor commodity shifts that may be caused by US tariffs, especially those from China, and will continue to advance trade agreement negotiations with many countries.

Tariff offensive

The new EU countermeasure list will be superimposed on the existing €21 billion tariff on US goods — the latter is being implemented in retaliation for Trump's 25% tariff on steel and aluminum exports. Last month, the EU agreed to postpone implementation of these measures for 90 days, as the US reduced the “equal” tax rate on most EU exports from 20% to 10% during negotiations. The proposals announced on Thursday are aimed at dealing with these equal tariffs and tariffs on automobiles and parts.

If Trump increases taxes in other areas, the EU may propose further measures: the US president has initiated investigations into possible taxes on timber, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, critical minerals, and truck imports. According to a previous report by Bloomberg, the committee said that all options are under consideration, and future measures may target the US service industry operating in Europe or restrict the export of specific products.

Eurostat data shows that in 2024, the EU exported 531.6 billion euros of goods to the US, imported 333.4 billion euros, and had a trade surplus of 1982 billion euros. If the service sector is included, it is more balanced, as the US enjoys a surplus in this sector. The difference between EU exports to the US and US exports to Europe in 2023 is 48 billion euros, accounting for only 3% of total bilateral trade.

EU-US trade

The committee targeted the aircraft as an attack on Boeing. The aircraft, whose customers are unwilling to accept surcharges, is becoming a new challenge for the US company.

TD Cowen analyst Gautam Kana pointed out that 58 of Boeing's aircraft to be delivered during the rest of 2025 are EU member states. The agency estimates that about 50 more aircraft are scheduled to be delivered to Chinese customers, and China Airlines has already refused to accept the new aircraft due to the tariff standoff.

Boeing CEO Kelly Otterberg said he will look for replacement buyers for these aircraft if necessary. “EU tariff dynamics may increase this figure, depending on the severity of the EU tariffs that may be implemented,” Kana said.