Qunzhi Consulting: Global smartphone shipments are expected to be about 1.18 billion units in 2025, and the local Chinese market will continue to grow steadily

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Qunzhi Consulting published an article stating that the year-on-year growth rate of global smartphone shipments continued to slow in the first quarter, and overall performance fell short of expectations. In 2025, the global economic situation is full of uncertainty, and the smartphone market is full of challenges. Global smartphone shipments are expected to be around 1.18 billion units for the whole year, down about 0.7% year on year. China's local market will continue its steady growth trend under macroeconomic policy regulation.

According to survey data from Qunzhi Consulting, global smartphone shipments in the first quarter of 2025 were about 290 million units, a slight increase of about 0.5% year on year. Continuing the growth trend, but the year-on-year growth rate continued to slow, and overall performance fell short of expectations.

With the release of the S25 series, Samsung shipped about 60.59 million smartphones in the first quarter, an increase of about 0.9% over the previous year, and ranked first with a market share of 20.8%.

Apple (AAPL.US) shipped about 55.61 million units in the first quarter, an increase of about 11.0% over the previous year. On the product side, the iPhone 16e led to an increase in sales; regionally, due to expectations of changes in tariff policies, the North American market prepared goods ahead of schedule in the first quarter, leading to a sharp year-on-year increase in shipments.

Xiaomi (01810) shipped about 41.8 million smartphones in the first quarter, an increase of about 2.4% over the previous year. In particular, it performed well in the Chinese market. Thanks to the stimulus of “state subsidies” and the collaboration of “the entire ecosystem of people and cars”, its shipments to the Chinese market increased sharply by about 40.1% year on year in the first quarter, and its market share increased to 18.4%, an increase of 5 percentage points over the previous year.

According to survey data from Qunzhi Consulting, in the first quarter of 2025, smartphones in the local Chinese market grew by about 2.0% year on year, driven by the “state subsidy” policy, and shipped about 71.95 million units, maintaining a year-on-year growth trend for six consecutive quarters. 

 Competition in the domestic smartphone market continues to intensify, the industry competition pattern is becoming more intense, and the leading effect is becoming more prominent. The concentration of TOP3 manufacturers has further increased, accounting for more than 50% of the market share.

In 2025, the global economic situation is full of uncertainty, and the smartphone market is full of challenges. Global smartphone shipments are expected to be around 1.18 billion units for the whole year, down about 0.7% year on year. China's local market will continue its steady growth trend under macroeconomic policy regulation.