The Huatai Securities Research Report pointed out that although US soft data has weakened overall recently, hard data has remained stable, and there is great uncertainty about the tariff policy and the unemployment rate/inflation outlook. The May meeting showed that the Federal Reserve maintains its previous wait-and-see stance, is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, plans to wait until the situation is clear before acting, and that the decision to cut interest rates depends on the trade-off between unemployment and inflation. Looking ahead, the Fed's subsequent interest rate cut decision mainly depends on hard data trends, especially employment data. If employment data clearly weakens before the June meeting, and inflationary pressure in April-May is still manageable, then there is still a certain probability that the Fed will cut interest rates in June. Otherwise, the Fed's decision to cut interest rates again may be postponed until July or later. In the future, we will continue to focus on changes in US tariff policy and hard data, including employment data, to judge the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decisions.

The Huatai Securities Research Report pointed out that although US soft data has weakened overall recently, hard data has remained stable, and there is great uncertainty about the tariff policy and the unemployment rate/inflation outlook. The May meeting showed that the Federal Reserve maintains its previous wait-and-see stance, is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, plans to wait until the situation is clear before acting, and that the decision to cut interest rates depends on the trade-off between unemployment and inflation. Looking ahead, the Fed's subsequent interest rate cut decision mainly depends on hard data trends, especially employment data. If employment data clearly weakens before the June meeting, and inflationary pressure in April-May is still manageable, then there is still a certain probability that the Fed will cut interest rates in June. Otherwise, the Fed's decision to cut interest rates again may be postponed until July or later. In the future, we will continue to focus on changes in US tariff policy and hard data, including employment data, to judge the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decisions.