Halfords Group (LON:HFD) investors are up 16% in the past week, but earnings have declined over the last five years

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. For example, the Halfords Group plc (LON:HFD) share price is up 48% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 29% (ignoring dividends).

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Halfords Group investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.

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While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Halfords Group's earnings per share are down 11% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.

Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Because earnings per share don't seem to match up with the share price, we'll take a look at other metrics instead.

We note that the dividend has not increased, so that doesn't seem to explain the increase, either. It could be that the revenue growth of 9.2% per year is viewed as evidence that Halfords Group is growing. Indeed, revenue growth, rather than EPS, might be the current focus of the business.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
LSE:HFD Earnings and Revenue Growth April 16th 2025

This free interactive report on Halfords Group's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Halfords Group the TSR over the last 5 years was 77%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 7.1% in the last year, Halfords Group shareholders lost 2.3% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 12% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Halfords Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Halfords Group , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course Halfords Group may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.