Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Lime Technologies AB (publ) (STO:LIME)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Lime Technologies fair value estimate is kr369
• Lime Technologies' kr388 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• The kr391 analyst price target for LIME is 5.8% more than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Lime Technologies AB (publ) (STO:LIME) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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Crunching The Numbers

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (SEK, Millions)	kr164.5m	kr200.0m	kr221.0m	kr236.1m	kr248.3m	kr258.2m	kr266.4m	kr273.4m	kr279.5m	kr285.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 6.82%	Est @ 5.16%	Est @ 4.00%	Est @ 3.19%	Est @ 2.62%	Est @ 2.23%	Est @ 1.95%
Present Value (SEK, Millions) Discounted @ 6.2%	kr155	kr177	kr184	kr185	kr183	kr179	kr174	kr168	kr162	kr155

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = kr1.7b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = kr285m× (1 + 1.3%) ÷ (6.2%– 1.3%) = kr5.8b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= kr5.8b÷ ( 1 + 6.2%)¹⁰= kr3.2b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is kr4.9b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of kr388, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Lime Technologies as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.143. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Check out our latest analysis for Lime Technologies

SWOT Analysis for Lime Technologies

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Lime Technologies, we've compiled three additional items you should assess:

1. Risks: Take risks, for example - Lime Technologies has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
2. Future Earnings: How does LIME's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the OM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.