CITIC Securities: BC battery capacity expansion is expected to accelerate and focus on three main lines

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that BC, as the next generation of photovoltaic technology with the most promising application prospects, is expected to accelerate the expansion of BC battery production capacity. Under the joint impetus of upstream and downstream industry chains, it is expected to achieve rapid deployment from 1 to 10 in 2025.

It is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in the BC industry chain from the following three main lines:

1) Batteries & Modules: We recommend leading companies that are the first to complete the BC battery and module production capacity layout.

2) Equipment: It is recommended to focus on laser equipment with higher elasticity and coating equipment with higher value that benefit from the BC graphic process, as well as the direction of string welding equipment using new welding methods.

3) Auxiliary materials: It is recommended to focus on the technical upgrading direction of auxiliary materials for BC composite welding tape, conductive paste and insulating adhesive.

CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:

Longji Green Energy released BC2.0 upgraded component products, leading overall conversion efficiency and power.

According to Longji Green Energy's official WeChat account, on April 11, 2025, Longji Green Energy held a spring launch conference for new BC2.0 products in Wuhu, Anhui Province. The company released the BC2.0 upgrade product Hi-MO 9 module. Its mass production power has reached 660W, and the company expects to increase to 670W by the end of the year, which is 40W higher than the maximum power (630W) of TopCon components; the mass production efficiency of components has reached 24.8%, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than TopCon components (mass production efficiency 23.3%). The component duplex ratio has been increased from 70% to 75%, and can be further increased to more than 80% according to customer needs. The company expects that after customers use Hi-MO 9 modules, power generation will increase by 8 to 11%, and BOS costs are expected to drop by 11-22 cents/W.

Multiple upgrades in optical and electrical dimensions drove battery mass production efficiency to exceed 27%.

According to Longji Green Energy's press conference, the mass production efficiency of Longji Green Energy BC2.0 batteries has now exceeded 27%, 1.5 percentage points higher than TopCon batteries (25.5% mass production efficiency). Efficiency improvements mainly come from the following four aspects:

1) Frontal barrier-free design: 100% frontal light absorption can be achieved, effectively increasing the absorption area by 5%;

2) Sub-micron suede: The front uses sub-micron suede+multi-layer anti-reflection film, which can reduce reflection and improve conversion efficiency;

3) Full battery passivation: the front and sides are undamaged, and bipolar composite passivation is used on the back, which can effectively reduce carrier synthesis;

4) Grid graphic optimization: On the one hand, 0BB technology is used to reduce transmission loss, and on the other hand, the gate aspect ratio is increased by 80%, further reducing the gate resistance.

In addition, the HIBC battery conversion efficiency of Longji Green Energy Laboratory has been increased to 27.81%, breaking the 27.4% efficiency record previously set by the company, and has become the closest battery to the theoretical limit of 29.4% for crystalline silicon batteries. At the same time, in the process of improving efficiency, BC battery manufacturers continue to solve process technical problems and improve product yield.

The terminal market recognizes or promotes rapid expansion of production capacity.

According to Longji Green Energy's press conference, the global contract volume for Longji BC Battery has now exceeded 30 GW, of which BC1.0 has been shipped 20 GW, and BC2.0 has already been ordered 10 GW since it was released in 2024. The orders cover key domestic power generation companies (Huaneng, China Energy Investment, Huadian, etc.) and large overseas energy companies (Engie, etc.); in addition, the company's BC reserve orders exceed 40GW. According to Longji Green Energy's official WeChat account, the company recently signed an order for 226MW Hi-MO 9 modules in Greece. This is also the largest BC ground power plant project in Europe so far. According to Longji Green Energy's press conference, since March of this year, the company has successfully climbed a new BC production line every 3 days, and the construction rate will continue until the end of this year. The company expects to have a BC production capacity of 70 GW by the end of the year. Driven by Longji Green Energy, a complete BC industry chain has been formed from upstream equipment (lasers, coating equipment, etc.) and materials (welding tape, adhesive film, back panels, etc.) to downstream batteries and components.

The spring wind of BC industrialization has arrived, and it is expected that 2025 will usher in rapid expansion.

The BC module has a barrier-free design on the front, which is more beautiful, and the characteristics of higher front power generation are naturally suitable for the distributed market. Moreover, due to its higher conversion efficiency and integrated power generation, BC is expected to further open up application space in centralized scenarios. At present, the profits of the entire photovoltaic industry have entered the bottom range, and it is expected that the capital expenditure of the industry in 2025 will mainly revolve around BC technology. Leading battery module companies represented by Longji Green Energy and Aixu Co., Ltd. are speeding up the BC production capacity layout. Domestic BC shipments are expected to be close to 50 GW in 2025, and the overall market penetration rate is expected to reach 7%, officially entering the rapid deployment stage from 1 to 10. As BC's cost performance advantage continues to improve, global BC module shipments are expected to exceed 160 GW in 2027, corresponding to a CAGR of 85% in 2024-2027, and the penetration rate may increase to more than 20%. The global BC module market is expected to exceed 120 billion yuan by 2027.

Risk factors:

Global PV installed capacity growth falls short of expectations; overseas trade barriers have risen further; raw material prices have risen sharply; BC battery technology has fallen short of expectations; BC battery costs have fallen short of expectations; and competition is intensifying.