A cloud of uncertainty looms over which US biotech stocks are expected to break through? Goldman Sachs gives the answer

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs recently released an outlook report on the US biotech industry. Due to increased uncertainty about macroeconomics/tariffs and US health care policies, the US biotech sector has not performed well so far in 2025, falling by about 20%, falling sharply behind the S&P 500 index. In this context, Goldman Sachs suggests focusing on companies less affected by tariffs and policy risks, such as Forte Pharmaceuticals (VRTX.US), Ariram Pharmaceuticals (ALNY.US), Gilead Sciences (GILD.US), Amgen (AMGN.US), and BIIB.US (BIIB.US).

Although US President Trump recently announced the suspension of “equal tariffs” for 90 days on most countries, the previous tariff and the 10% minimum benchmark tariff are still in effect, and the Goldman Sachs macro team expects the US to impose additional industry-specific tariffs, including pharmaceuticals. Due to limited manufacturing layout information disclosed by the company, the impact of tariffs on the biopharmaceutical industry is still difficult to assess.

However, Goldman Sachs expects the impact of tariffs to be largely manageable; the specific impact will depend on the overall profit margin situation and the final tariff level. Assuming that approximately 50% of US sales are provided by non-US manufacturing and that the tariff rate is 50%, the impact on profit margins is between 2-3%.

In terms of dealing with tariff risks, Goldman Sachs believes that Forte Pharmaceuticals and Ariram Pharmaceuticals seem to be in the best position, followed by Gilead Sciences, Amgen, and Baijian, but Regenerative Pharmaceutical (REGN.US) is facing difficulties.

Furthermore, potential changes in US Medicare and Medicaid will also have an impact on the biotech sector of US stocks. Although the Trump administration has reiterated that Medicare/Medicaid will not be affected, the US Congressional Budget Office report suggests that spending cuts (particularly Medicaid) may be necessary to offset the impact of tax cuts.

Goldman Sachs believes Amgen, Baijian, Regenerative Pharmaceuticals, and Aliram Pharmaceuticals appear to be the least affected by Medicaid changes.

Goldman Sachs also advises investors to choose small and medium-sized businesses with good cash flow, healthcare policies, and limited tariff risk, including Blueprint Medicines (BPMC.US). Goldman Sachs is also looking at potential M&A opportunities for small and medium businesses.

Overall, Goldman Sachs gave Anjin (ACAD.US), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS.US), and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA.US) “buy” ratings; “sell” ratings to Gilead Sciences, INCY.US (INCY.US), and Moderna (MRNA.US); and “sell” ratings for Acadia (ACAD.US), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS.US), and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA.US).