According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, long-term bond yields have gone up and down since March 2025. There are two factors worth paying attention to when reviewing the current bond market. One is that the central bank's liquidity operations reflect marginal changes in its position on goods policy, and the other is the unexpected impact of tariff disturbances. Reviewing the changes in monetary policy and bond market interest rates in the previous round of the 2018-2019 Sino-US tariff game, CITIC Securities believes that this round of tariff games has increased the need for stable monetary policy expectations, and the bond market trading framework has returned to fundamentals. Looking ahead to the second quarter, it is expected that as the headwind period in the bond market comes to an end, the overall institutional allocation capacity will gradually be restored. It is expected that there is a high probability that the central bank will downgrade in the second quarter, and interest rate cuts will still have to be determined by observing more economic data and taking into account the external environment.

According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, long-term bond yields have gone up and down since March 2025. There are two factors worth paying attention to when reviewing the current bond market. One is that the central bank's liquidity operations reflect marginal changes in its position on goods policy, and the other is the unexpected impact of tariff disturbances. Reviewing the changes in monetary policy and bond market interest rates in the previous round of the 2018-2019 Sino-US tariff game, CITIC Securities believes that this round of tariff games has increased the need for stable monetary policy expectations, and the bond market trading framework has returned to fundamentals. Looking ahead to the second quarter, it is expected that as the headwind period in the bond market comes to an end, the overall institutional allocation capacity will gradually be restored. It is expected that there is a high probability that the central bank will downgrade in the second quarter, and interest rate cuts will still have to be determined by observing more economic data and taking into account the external environment.