Nomura Real Estate Holdings' (TSE:3231) five-year earnings growth trails the splendid shareholder returns

Simply Wall St · 3d ago

When you buy shares in a company, it's worth keeping in mind the possibility that it could fail, and you could lose your money. But on a lighter note, a good company can see its share price rise well over 100%. For instance, the price of Nomura Real Estate Holdings, Inc. (TSE:3231) stock is up an impressive 159% over the last five years. It's also good to see the share price up 14% over the last quarter.

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

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In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over half a decade, Nomura Real Estate Holdings managed to grow its earnings per share at 19% a year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 21% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore one could conclude that sentiment towards the shares hasn't morphed very much. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
TSE:3231 Earnings Per Share Growth April 15th 2025

We know that Nomura Real Estate Holdings has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Nomura Real Estate Holdings the TSR over the last 5 years was 211%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Nomura Real Estate Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 6.8% over one year. And that does include the dividend. However, that falls short of the 25% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Nomura Real Estate Holdings has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.