JP Morgan Expects Solid Q1 Oil Output For APA, But Sees March Shut-Ins To Impact Volumes Slightly

Benzinga · 04/14 20:35

JP Morgan analyst Arun Jayaram expects a strong first-quarter result for APA Corporation (NASDAQ:APA).

The analyst expects overall volumes to align with the company’s guidance and sees financial results slightly ahead of Street expectations.

Jayaram forecasts adjusted oil production at 398 MBoe/d, with U.S. oil output expected to land near the lower end of the 125–127 MBoe/d guidance range.

Total volumes are expected to be slightly impacted by 11 mmcfe/d of gas/NGL shut-ins in March, roughly 73% of which is gas, due to negative Waha pricing, he added.

The analyst projects U.S. production at 298 MBoe/d in the quarter, slightly below the 300 MBoe/d guidance due to shut-ins at Alpine High.

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Jayaram anticipates a capital expenditure (CAPEX) of $776 million, just above the guidance of $765 million, largely due to the timing of Suriname-related spending.

For 2025, the analyst expects the Suriname CAPEX of $200 million, with $125 million allocated in the first quarter (versus the guided $100 million).

This reflects long-cycle investment in the GranMorgu project, which aims for its first oil in 2028.

Under a scenario with WTI oil at $50 per barrel and U.S. gas at $3.50 per Mcf, Jayaram estimates free cash flow (FCF) yields of 9.2% for 2025 and 1.4% for 2026.

Finally, Jayaram projects first-quarter EPS of $0.76 vs. the Street estimate of $0.77 and EBITDAX of $1.408 billion (3% above consensus of $1.366 billion).

The company plans to release first-quarter 2025 results on May 8.

Price Action: APA shares are down 0.03% at $15.03 at the last check on Monday.

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Photo: Shuttestock