US stock outlook | Futures on the three major stock indexes fell sharply. Tonight, US initial requests and PPI data are coming

1. On March 13 (Thursday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes fell sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were down 0.15%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.22%, and NASDAQ futures were down 0.38%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index fell 0.49%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.02%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.04%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.16%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 0.53% to $67.32 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 0.48% to $70.61 per barrel.

Market news

After CPI inflation has completely cooled down, the US initial request and PPI data will arrive tonight. The number of US jobless claims for the week up to March 8 and the US PPI data for February are the focus of attention on this trading day. Among them, the initial market expectations will be higher than the previous value, indicating an increase in the number of unemployed people, and PPI data is also expected to be lower than the previous value, indicating that inflation is cooling down and raising expectations of interest rate cuts. It is worth mentioning that the US CPI increase for February announced yesterday was lower than market expectations, but analysts believe that this improvement may only be short-lived. As the US government implements aggressive tariff policies on imported goods, the prices of most commodities are expected to face upward pressure in the next few months. On Wednesday, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in February, which is significantly slower than the 0.5% increase in January; the year-on-year increase was 2.8%, down from 3.0% in January.

A historic opportunity for US tech giants to break the bottom? Retail investors flocked to ETFs tracking the “Big Seven” during the crash. According to US stock capital flow statistics released on Wednesday, retail investors in the US stock market bought a popular exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the trend of the “Seven Major US Tech Giants” (the Magnificent Seven) stocks during the recent period of continuous decline in the US stock market. According to the latest statistics from market analysis company VettaFi, the ETF called “Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF” (ETF specific code: MAGS), which tracks the overall stock price trend of the “Big Seven” in US stocks, attracted net capital inflows of up to 50 million dollars in the past four trading days up to Tuesday. Over the same period, the MAGS ETF trading price fell by more than 7%, while the S&P 500 index fell 4.6%.

Xiaoma warning lifted: the “darkest hour” for US stocks may have passed, and the credit market has sent a key signal. J.P. Morgan believes that the worst phase of this US stock market adjustment may have passed, and the performance of the credit market shows that the risk of a US recession is decreasing. J.P. Morgan strategists Nicolas Panigirzoglu and Mika Inkinin pointed out in a report released on Wednesday that the credit market has been proven accurate many times over the past two years, and its expectations about the risk of a recession in the US economy are also more optimistic than the stock or interest rate market. They believe that the credit market's skepticism about the risk of a recession in the US economy is worthy of investors' attention. According to J.P. Morgan's analysis, small-cap stocks are more sensitive to domestic economic growth. They think the probability of a US recession is 50%, while the debt market believes that the probability of a US recession is only 9% to 12%.

US stocks “keep falling and falling,” yet retail investors are determined to “buy buy” large technology stocks and ETFs. IBKR.US (IBKR.US) said on Tuesday that despite the sharp decline in US stocks in the past week, investors seem to be steadfastly buying stocks such as NVDA.US (NVDA.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) on dips. Market analysis company VetTaFi also said that Wednesday's data showed that during the recent sharp decline in US stocks, individual investors were snapping up shares in a tradable open-ended index fund (ETF) linked to the “Big Seven” technology supercap stocks, and other ETFs related to a wider range of indices were also popular. Affected by economic growth concerns, the S&P 500 index fell about 3.6% over the past week, closing on Tuesday just one step away from entering a pullback range. The chief strategist of Yingtou Securities pointed out that in this week's volatile trading and sharp decline, all 25 stocks on its weekly list of most active stocks showed a net buying trend.

AI is fueling a surge in demand! The US power industry ushered in a big year of mergers and acquisitions. Deal makers expect 2025 to be a good year for mergers and acquisitions in the US power industry. Driven by AI data centers, record demand for electricity and dazzling AI electricity usage forecasts make power generation and infrastructure assets, and the companies that own them, attractive to energy companies, private equity, and other institutional investors. At a time when the Trump administration's policies and their impact on the economy caused market fluctuations and uncertainties, the overall M&A market had its weakest start since the global financial crisis. However, Trump declared an energy emergency in the US to promote the construction of the electricity sector, calling it an “urgent priority to protect America's national and economic security.”

Individual stock news

UCL.US (UCL.US) Q4 revenue increased 19.5% year over year, with a net loss of US$1.5 million. Unicorn's Q4 revenue was US$26 million, up 19.5% year on year; net loss was US$1.5 million, net loss of US$1.8 million for the same period of the previous year; loss per ADS was US$0.04 after basic and dilution, and US$0.05 per ADS loss for the same period last year. Gross profit was $11.2 million, down 1.0% year over year. The operating loss was 1.7 million US dollars, compared to a loss of 1.9 million US dollars in the same period last year. Non-GAAP adjusted net loss of USD 3.1 million, net profit of USD 1.1 million for the same period of the previous year; non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was USD 2.3 million, compared to USD 1.5 million for the same period of the previous year. In terms of full-year results, the company's Q4 revenue was US$91.6 million, up 7.1% year on year; net profit was US$4.6 million, or US$2.8 million in the same period last year; basic and diluted earnings per ADS were $0.12, compared to US$0.08 for the same period last year.

XNET.US's fourth-quarter revenue increased 9.3% year over year to US$84.3 million. Xunlei's fourth quarter revenue was US$84.3 million, up 9.3% year over year. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.18. In terms of business segments, subscription revenue was US$34.4 million, up 9.0% year on year; cloud computing revenue was US$22.7 million, down 25.6% year on year; revenue from live streaming and other Internet value-added services was US$27.2 million, up 80.7% year on year. The company expects total revenue for the first quarter of 2025 to be between US$85 million and US$89 million, with a median increase of about 3.2% month-on-month.

Weibo (WB.US)'s net profit in 2024 was US$301 million, and the annual operating profit margin reached 28%. Weibo achieved net revenue of US$457 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.48%; net profit attributable to Weibo shareholders was US$8.65 million, a year-on-year decrease of 89.35%; and basic net income per share attributable to Weibo shareholders was US$0.04. In fiscal year 2024, net revenue of US$1,755 million was achieved, a year-on-year decrease of 0.29%; net profit attributable to Weibo shareholders was US$301 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%; basic net income per share attributable to Weibo shareholders was US$1.27 per share; and a proposed cash dividend of US$0.82 per common share or US$0.82 per American depository share.

Adobe (ADBE.US) Q1 performance exceeded expectations, but lackluster Q2 guidance dragged down stock prices. Adobe's Q1 revenue increased 10% year over year to US$5.71 billion, better than analysts' general expectations of US$5.66 billion; the remaining performance obligation to measure future sales was US$19.7 billion, lower than analysts' average estimate of US$19.8 billion. Adjusted operating profit was $2.72 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $5.08, better than analysts' general expectations of $4.97. Looking ahead, Adobe predicts that in the second fiscal quarter ending May, revenue will be between US$5.77 billion and US$5.82 billion, with analysts generally expecting US$5.80 billion; the adjusted earnings per share are expected to be US$4.95-5.00, and analysts generally expect US$5.00.

Futu Holdings (FUTU.US) Q4 revenue increased 86.8% year over year, and net profit surged 105.4%. Futu Q4's total revenue was HK$4.43 billion (approximately US$571 million), up 86.8% year on year; net profit under non-GAAP (non-GAAP) was HK$1,952 million (approximately US$251 million), up 105.4% year on year. By business classification, transaction commission and handling fee revenue for the fourth quarter was HK$2,057 million (approximately US$265 million), up 127.6% year on year; interest income was HK$2,022 million (approximately US$260 million), up 51.8% year on year; other revenue (including wealth management, corporate services, etc.) was HK$353 million (approximately US$45.4 million), up 157% year on year. For the full year of 2024, Futu's total revenue was HK$13.59 billion (approximately US$1.75 billion) and realized net profit of HK$5.768 billion (approximately US$743 million) under non-GAAP (non-GAAP), with year-on-year increases of 35.8% and 26.2%, respectively.

SentinelOne (S.US)'s performance outlook falls short of expectations, and the AI boom makes it difficult to solve cybersecurity competition concerns. SentinelOne management expects overall revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 to hover around US$228 million. According to LSEG forecast data, this forecast is lower than Wall Street analysts' previous average forecast of US$235.1 million; the company's management also expects the full year revenue range of US$1.01 billion to US$1,012 million for fiscal year 2026, which is slightly lower than analysts' average forecast of US$1.03 billion. Although SentinelOne's overall revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ending January 31, 2025) reached US$225 million, a year-on-year increase of 29%, exceeding the previous analysts' average estimate of US$222.3 million, the company's adjusted profit per share for the fourth fiscal quarter was 4 cents, better than the adjusted loss of 2 cents per share for the same period last year.

Under the heavy pressure of Trump's tariffs, the best-selling pickup truck from Ford (F.US), the “big aluminum user”, was brought to the forefront. To reduce weight and improve the fuel efficiency of its best-selling F-150 pickup truck, Ford (F.US) uses more imported aluminum in production, which puts this popular model at the cutting edge of President Trump's trade policy. On Wednesday, the US government imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imported into the US to level the playing field for US manufacturers. However, according to foreign media reports, since the US produces very little of this type of metal for manufacturing, it is expected that these tariffs will lead to an increase in input costs, which in turn will increase the price of the Ford F-150 by about 400 US dollars per vehicle. Unless Ford passes the costs on to consumers, the tariffs could have an impact similar to 2018's, potentially reducing Ford's profits by $1 billion.

Alphabet (GOOGL.US) launches robot AI models, pointing to Meta (META.US) and OpenAI. Google's parent company Alphabet's Artificial Intelligence (AI) Labs has unveiled two new models focused on robotics that will help developers train robots to handle unfamiliar scenarios — a long-standing challenge in the field. Google DeepMind said on Tuesday that it will release Gemini Robotics, a new branch of its flagship artificial intelligence model aimed at developing smarter, more interactive robots. Another model, called Gemini Robotics-ER, focuses on spatial understanding and will help robot makers build new programs using Gemini's reasoning abilities. DeepMind's engineer Kanishka Rao said that by applying Gemini to robots, Google is moving towards developing “general-purpose robots” that can perform various tasks.

Key economic data and event forecasts

20:30 Beijing time: The number of jobless claims in the US at the beginning of the week ending March 8, and the US PPI for February.

Performance Forecast

Friday pre-market: Ideal Auto (LI.US), Fog Core Technology (RLX.US), Tuniu (TOUR.US)