Dillard's, Inc. (NYSE:DDS) shares have had a horrible month, losing 26% after a relatively good period beforehand. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 18% in that time.
Even after such a large drop in price, given about half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 18x, you may still consider Dillard's as an attractive investment with its 9.7x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.
Dillard's hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. It seems that many are expecting the dour earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If you still like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
View our latest analysis for Dillard's
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Dillard's would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 18%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 11% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 19% per annum during the coming three years according to the three analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 11% growth each year, that's a disappointing outcome.
In light of this, it's understandable that Dillard's' P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.
Dillard's' recently weak share price has pulled its P/E below most other companies. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
As we suspected, our examination of Dillard's' analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Dillard's (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you need to take into consideration.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.