Wheat Holds Tuesday Losses as USDA Raises Stocks Estimate

Wheat closed lower across the three exchanges on Tuesday with more wheat expected this month for the end of the marketing year. Chicago SRW futures were down 4 to 6 cents on the day. KC HRW futures close with 6 to 7 cent losses in the front months. MPLS spring wheat was 7 to 8 cents lower in the nearbys. 

There are reports that the Ukrainians have agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, with Secretary of State Rubio taking the offer to the Russian side in the negotiations. 

The monthly WASDE report from USDA showed a 25 mbu increase to the US ending stocks projection at 819 mbu. That came on a 10 mbu increase to imports and 15 mbu cut to exports. The cash average price was also trimmed back by a nickel. 

On the world side, there was ahistorical revision to Turkey, up 2.2 MMT, with Australia production up 2.1 MMT to 34.1 MMT. Ukraine stocks were also up 0.4 MMT on a revision to last year’ output, with Russian exports trimmed back. Chinese Stocks were down 1.5 MMT on lower imports. All of that mixed with the increase to the US took world stocks 2.52 MMT higher to 260.08 MMT.

Coceral estimates the EU (including the UK) wheat production for 2025 at 137.2 MMT, down from 140.4 MMT back in December. 

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.41, down 4 1/4 cents,

May 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.56 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents,

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.58 3/4, down 7 cents,

May 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.72, down 6 1/2 cents,

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.82 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

May 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.97 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.