Shanxi Huayang New Material Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600281) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 26% after a shaky period beforehand. Looking further back, the 18% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.
After such a large jump in price, given around half the companies in China's Metals and Mining industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.5x, you may consider Shanxi Huayang New MaterialLtd as a stock to avoid entirely with its 8.2x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
View our latest analysis for Shanxi Huayang New MaterialLtd
Shanxi Huayang New MaterialLtd has been doing a decent job lately as it's been growing revenue at a reasonable pace. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think this good revenue growth will be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Shanxi Huayang New MaterialLtd, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as Shanxi Huayang New MaterialLtd's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.
If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 6.1%. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen an unpleasant 9.7% overall drop in revenue. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 14% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this information, we find it concerning that Shanxi Huayang New MaterialLtd is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
Shanxi Huayang New MaterialLtd's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.
We've established that Shanxi Huayang New MaterialLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
Having said that, be aware Shanxi Huayang New MaterialLtd is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, you should know about.
If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.