As Super Micro Computer Stock Stays Volatile, Watch These Chart Levels

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock is still experiencing significant volatility in the new calendar year, with the shares closing today on a drop of 5.7%. That follows Monday’s big gains, driven by positive analyst coverage and expectations of increased demand for artificial intelligence (AI) hardware. 

Specifically, SMCI stock surged by 9.4% to start the week following a bullish report from Lynx Equity, which highlighted a potential bullish catalyst in the form of Nvidia's (NVDA) new AI processors. This optimism was further supported by Microsoft's (MSFT) late-Friday announcement of substantial AI infrastructure spending, which bodes well for Super Micro's server products. 

However, SMCI gave back the bulk of those gains today, after last night’s CES 2025 keynote from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang focused largely on autonomous driving collaborations, AI chips for gaming, and a name-drop for memory supplier Micron (MU). Amid today’s negative session for stocks, investors also overlooked a bullish note on Super Micro Computer from Wolfe, which included SMCI on its list of companies expected to realize revenue growth greater than 25% in 2025. 

Most analysts remain cautious on SMCI, with a consensus rating of “Hold” from the 12 experts in coverage - down from “Moderate Buy” three months ago. Despite a strong demand outlook, Super Micro Computer's narrow profit margins and potential need for increased financial controls could impact future profitability.

To highlight the extent of the stock’s year-to-date volatility, SMCI is already up 12% year-to-date - but the shares have quickly corrected 10% from Monday’s intraday peak. By comparison, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is up 0.4% this year, and down 1.9% from its YTD intraday high.

Longer term, SMCI has been trading below its 200-day moving average since last August, when concerns first began to emerge about risks due to delayed financial reporting and concerns over accounting practices. More recently, the stock has been challenging resistance at its 50-day moving average, with today marking its third consecutive daily close above this trendline. Beyond that, the round $40 level is the next key hurdle that SMCI needs to take out, and speculators have stacked up over 22,000 open call options at this strike in the monthly January series.

Investors should continue to proceed with caution when it comes to SMCI, as the stock remains a high-risk play in the AI space. While the potential growth prospects are promising, the uncertainties surrounding Super Micro’s financial reporting warrant a careful approach, and the upcoming filing of its long-delayed 10-K report will be critical in determining the stock's trajectory. 

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. On the date of publication, the editor had a position in: NVDA , MSFT . All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.