Open Source Securities: Consumer Electronics National Supplements and AI Terminals Resonance Mobile Phone Chain are expected to rise sharply in volume and price

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that in 2025, the “two new” expansions will include 3C digital devices such as mobile phones, which is expected to drive domestic demand. From the perspective of computing power, battery life, and usage scenarios, it is still difficult for new consumer electronics products such as AI glasses to replace the dominant position of AI phones in the AI terminal ecosystem in the medium term. Continued improvement of the AI ecosystem will continue to enhance the consumer experience and drive the increase in demand for AI mobile phone switching. Demand for AI mobile phone switching is compounded by national subsidies, and sales in the domestic mobile phone market are expected to increase significantly in 2025. Upstream component and IC manufacturers are expected to show greater performance flexibility when factors such as operating rates are combined.

The main views of Open Source Securities are as follows:

In 2025, the “two new” capacity will be expanded, and the national supplement will include 3C digital devices such as mobile phones, which is expected to drive domestic demand

On January 3, the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out at a press conference that since the implementation of the “two new” in 2024, trade-in sales of automobiles and home appliances has increased markedly. The comprehensive effects of the “two new” work on expanding effective investment, boosting consumer consumption, and accelerating green transformation continue to show. 2025 will significantly increase the scale of funds for ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, step up the expansion and implementation of the “two new” tasks, and subsidize the purchase of 3 types of digital products such as mobile phones, tablets, and smart watches. The specific plan will be announced as soon as possible.

Looking back at the 2024 “Two New” Policy: On March 7, the State Council issued the “Action Plan to Promote Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-In”, which proposes to implement consumer goods trade-in actions, carry out trade-in of automobiles and household appliances, and promote the exchange of consumer goods; on July 24, the NDRC and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on “Certain Measures to Strengthen Support for Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in”, proposing to coordinate the arrangement of about 300 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to enhance support large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in, and refine household appliances. Car subsidy policy ; As of December 12, the “two new ones” have driven the renewal of more than 5.2 million vehicles, sales of more than 690 billion yuan, the replacement of more than 49 million units of household appliances, sales of more than 210 billion yuan, and the renewal of more than 2 million units of old equipment, with remarkable results.

The stars shine at CES 2025 at the Science and Technology Spring Festival Gala. In 2025, AI terminals will continue to penetrate and AI applications will be deeply implemented

From January 7 to 11, CES 2025 (International Consumer Electronics Show), known as the “Spring Festival Gala in Science and Technology”, will be held in Las Vegas, USA. According to media information such as Wind, the theme of this year's exhibition is “DiVein”. It is expected that many exhibitors such as Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Lenovo, and Samsung will showcase their latest applications and innovations in the field of AI. AI terminal products such as AI phones, AI wearables, and AI smart home products are expected to be the focus, and fields such as virtual reality, smart cars, and consumer robots are also worthy of attention. 2024 is the first year of AI terminal exploration. 2025 will be a year of accelerated innovation in underlying AI technology, continuous penetration of AI terminals, and deep implementation of AI application scenarios. The global AI industry is expected to continue to develop rapidly.

Mobile phones will still dominate the AI terminal ecosystem. Combined with state subsidies, the mobile phone chain is expected to see a sharp rise in volume and price in 2025

In terms of national renewal subsidies, according to the official statement of “drastically increasing the amount of funds for ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in 25 years,” the capital budget for 3C digital products such as mobile phones is expected to reach 100 billion dollars. According to IDC data, the smartphone market in mainland China shipped about 271 million units in 2023, with a market size of about US$127.8 billion.

Beneficial targets:

(1) Brand machines: Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Longqi Technology (603341.SH), Huaqin Technology (603296.SH), Guanghong Technology (300735.SZ);

(2) Mobile phone components: Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing (002600.SZ), Lansi Technology (300433.SZ), Lixun Precision (002475.SZ), Pengding Holdings (002938.SZ), BYD Electronics (00285), Ruisheng Technology (02018), Shunyu Optical Technology (02382), Qiu Titanium Technology (01478), Electric Connection Technology (300679.SZ), Ou Fei Guang (002456.SZ);

(3) ICs and components: Aiwei Electronics (688798.SH), Gekowei (688728.SH), Stevi-W (688213.SH), Huiding Technology (), Shunluo Electronics (002138.SZ), Weijie Chuangxin (Dubai), Maxinsheng (). 603160.SH 688153.SH 688458.SH

Risk warning: Policy introduction falls short of expected risk; downstream demand falls short of expected risk; industry competition increases risk, etc.