Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that U-Haul Holding Company (NYSE:UHAL) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for U-Haul Holding
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 U-Haul Holding had debt of US$6.68b, up from US$6.15b in one year. On the flip side, it has US$1.44b in cash leading to net debt of about US$5.25b.
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that U-Haul Holding had liabilities of US$964.1m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$11.6b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$1.44b and US$271.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$10.9b.
This deficit is considerable relative to its very significant market capitalization of US$12.5b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on U-Haul Holding's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
U-Haul Holding has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.1 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 6.7 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Importantly, U-Haul Holding's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 38% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine U-Haul Holding's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, U-Haul Holding burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
To be frank both U-Haul Holding's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. We're quite clear that we consider U-Haul Holding to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for U-Haul Holding that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.