Nomura: It is expected that Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers will further expand market share competition next year, and competition is still a key topic

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Nomura released a research report saying that it is expected that Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers will further expand their market share in 2025. From the perspective of the mass market, smart cars, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and extended-range electric vehicles, competition is still a key theme.

According to the report, electric vehicles will further seize market share in 2025. Thanks to the government's trade-in subsidy policy, automobile shipments in the Chinese market in 2024 were higher than the bank's previous estimates. Although some upfront demand is expected to shift from the first quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2024, the bank believes that the automobile market may have further policy incentives in 2025, such as a follow-up policy for trade-ins.

Therefore, looking ahead to 2025, Nomura is optimistic about overall market demand and believes demand can grow further. At the same time, as the pricing capacity of electric vehicle manufacturers continues to improve, Nomura is also expected to more actively seize the market share of internal combustion vehicle manufacturers.

In addition, Nomura raised its 2024-2026 passenger car retail forecast by 4% respectively. Currently, it is expected to increase 3.9% year on year in 2024 and 2.1% year on year in 2025 to 2026. The bank currently predicts that passenger car retail sales will be 22.5 million and 23 million units (excluding minivans) this year and next two years, respectively.