Guoxin Securities: An important corporate growth paradigm in the era of commercial, retail, mergers, acquisitions, and restructuring

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that the consumer industry is slowly moving from a horse-racetrack incremental development model to a stage of high-quality growth under the stock model. As the industry enters an era of stock, the overall optimism is that sector leaders will usher in a second growth in performance through reasonable and stable mergers and acquisitions. It is recommended to focus on leading offline retail companies with high regional brand awareness and perfect supply chain construction, and leading enterprises with strong brands and excellent channels and R&D and operation capabilities in the beauty care industry to drive multi-brand growth through epitaxial extension in the future.

Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:

The overall growth rate of consumption is slowing down, and businesses are seeking new growth.

Since 2024, overall consumption has continued to grow at a low level, and total retail sales of social consumer goods increased 3.5% year-on-year in January-October. The consumer industry is slowly moving from a horse-racing pole-like incremental development paradigm to a stage of high-quality growth under the stock paradigm. The integration of mergers and acquisitions within the industry is expected to usher in an era of opportunities for leading players.

From a policy perspective, the current support policy for mergers, acquisitions and restructuring continues to be strengthened, providing enterprises with rich tools for epitaxial growth. Judging from the situation of leading listed companies themselves, they have also accumulated a large amount of experience in capital operation and diversified management in recent years. As demand for exiting the primary market has increased, many high-quality consumer products have also provided good acquisition and integration opportunities for listed companies.

Main line of mergers, acquisitions and restructuring: Industrial restructuring, offline retail enterprises have entered a new round of restructuring.

The offline retail channel leader itself still has the advantages of concentrated and accessible products, diverse and rich consumption scenarios, and has accumulated deep supply chain capabilities. Under current short-term operating pressure, it is expected to revitalize inefficient assets within the industry through mergers and acquisitions, achieve value-added appreciation in core businesses, and enhance long-term competitiveness. Currently, in response to current business problems, leading traditional retail companies such as Yonghui are also actively learning from excellent experiences and using external industrial resources to carry out transformation and adjustments, which are now beginning to bear fruit.

Main line of mergers, acquisitions and restructuring: epitaxial expansion, the path of diversified expansion of branded enterprises.

For brand-type enterprises, in the context of peak traffic and pressure on demand, further growth requires complementing the category matrix and channels and building a platform-based development model. Relying on epitaxial mergers and acquisitions, it can help achieve large-scale development of multiple brands and categories to meet the needs of different consumers with different positioning brands; second, it can help channel expansion, including entering overseas markets. According to Bain's statistics, the contribution rate of mergers and acquisitions to the overseas revenue of international companies has increased by an average of 27%.

Investment advice: As the industry enters an era of stock, we are generally optimistic that through reasonable and stable mergers and acquisitions, sector leaders will usher in a second growth in performance.

Retail channel integration: It is recommended to focus on offline retail leaders with high brand awareness and perfect supply chain construction in the region: Small Commodity Mall (600415.SH), Chongqing Department Store (600729.SH), Mingchuang Premium (09896), Bailian Co., Ltd. (600827.SH), Yonghui Supermarket (), Jiajiayue (Dubai), etc. 601933.SH 603708.SH

Brand expansion: It is recommended to focus on leading companies with strong brands and excellent channels and R&D and operation capabilities in the beauty care industry to drive multi-brand growth through epitaxial extension: Pelaea (603605.SH), Langzi (002612.SZ), Marumi (603983.SH), Bethany (300957.SZ), Ameike (300896.SZ), and Shuyang (300740.SZ).