Cui Dongshu: Sales of 41,000 vehicles in the pickup market fell 1% year on year in October, down 9% month on month

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Transport Association, released the “October 2024 Pickup Market Analysis”, which indicates that 40,500 pickup trucks were produced in October 2024, down 4% year on year; in October, the pickup truck market sold 41,000 units, down 1% year on year and 9% month on month, which is the median level of the past 5 years. Pickup sales in January-October of this year were 427,000 units, achieving a 2% year-on-year increase. Overall performance was good. Great Wall Motor continues to maintain its leading position as a strong pickup truck, and has performed well at home and abroad. In the domestic pickup truck market, Great Wall Motors, Jiangling Motors, Zhengzhou Nissan, Jiangxi Isuzu, etc. continue to perform well, and the “top three pickup trucks” pattern continues to be maintained.

In October, 20,000 pickup trucks were exported, up 63% year on year, and the industry's share of exports remained high. Pickup truck exports accounted for 45% of total pickup truck sales from January to October 2024, reaching 47% in October 2024. China's independent pickup truck exports increased quite well. As an international model pickup truck, it has become the strongest category in China's commercial vehicle exports.

Cui Dongshu said that in the past two years, production by international car companies has been insufficient, and there is a large gap between supply and demand. This has laid the foundation for China's pickup truck exports overseas, and has also promoted the continuous growth of China's pickup truck exports since 2022. Pickup truck exports continued to show the same strong growth trend from January to October this year. Some pickup truck companies seized export opportunities to achieve strong growth. For example, JAC, Changan, Great Wall, and SAIC Chase all had large export scales, and exports accounted for more than half of their respective manufacturers' total pickup truck sales.

In 2024, sales of new energy pickups nationwide were 9,217 units, an increase of 58% over the previous year. In October, there were 1,045 new energy pickups, an increase of 64% over the previous year, forming a better trend than fuel pickups. Compared to the surge in logistics demand for electric light trucks, liberalizing the right of way for pickups into the city is a false proposition. The effect of “pickup trucks entering the city” is far less effective than “pickup trucks going to the countryside”. The share of pickup truck sales in the county and township markets this year is still relatively good compared to last year, which effectively offsets the contraction of pickups in domestic cities. With the launch of the domestic electric pickup truck market, electric pickup trucks such as Geely Radar are gradually cultivating the market. It is expected that more new energy pickup products will meet domestic and foreign demand in the future.

I. Overall analysis of the pickup truck market

1. Monthly trends in the pickup truck market over the years

The trend of the wholesale pickup truck market in 2024 was high, medium, and low. The March sprint high was relatively moderate. The May-September trend was weak, and the trend resumed in October. 2023 is earlier than the Spring Festival in previous years, so the pick-up truck trend from May to October this year increased due to the late Spring Festival factor.

Pickups are a means of production model. Since pickups are generally purchased relatively few before the Spring Festival, pick-up truck sales enter peak season from March to December after the Spring Festival. This is also a growing demand point for real estate, engineering projects, and unit purchases.

Passenger car sales represent the quality of life and pursuit of Chinese consumers, but commercial vehicle sales represent the development status of small enterprises and small private owners in China. Only when demand for commercial vehicles rises and basic livelihood issues are resolved can the passenger car market recover.

The pickup truck market also directly reflects the development of small private owners. The pickup truck market represented by Great Wall Motor has become a pioneer in the recovery of the automobile market after the epidemic. However, with the downturn in real estate and the pressure on the tertiary sector to operate, it is also difficult for the pickup truck market to recover. Due to the rapid activity of the overseas pickup truck export market, the pickup truck market is becoming increasingly complex.

With the trendy culture of middle-aged people, the space for self-driving and country trips has increased, and more people choose pickup trucks to play.

2. Comparison of trends in the national pickup truck market in October

The pickup truck market sold 41,000 vehicles in October 2024, down 1% year on year and 9% month on month, which is the median level of the past 5 years. Pickup sales in January-October of this year were 427,000 units, achieving a 2% year-on-year increase. Overall performance was good.

Pickup sales in 2018 were 450,000 units, up 10%; in 2019, the cumulative sales volume of pickup trucks was 440,000 units, down 3% year on year; in 2020 it was 480,000, which was a strong increase of 9% year on year; 2021 pickup sales were 550,000, up 14% year on year, reaching a recent peak.

The overall pickup truck trend in 2022 was relatively stable, reaching 513,000 units, down 6% from 2021. Overall pickup truck sales in 2023 were 513,000, down 0.1% year on year. The trend of pickup trucks is relatively stable. Based on the trend of the past two years, pickup trucks are still relatively good compared to light trucks, etc.

3. Strong export performance of pickup trucks

Pickup truck exports reached 19,600 units in October 2024, which is a good year-on-year growth rate. This year's trend is similar to 2022. October fell more than the peak in September, but this year's fluctuation was greater.

Companies such as Great Wall Motor, SAIC Chase, Changan Automobile, JAC, and Beiqi Foton have excellent export performance. However, the recent slowdown in commercial vehicle export growth is a relatively obvious common characteristic.

The national pickup truck market exported a total of 132,000 pickup trucks in 2023, a growth rate of 4%. This year, the overall pickup truck industry, represented by Great Wall Motor, exported 20,000 pickups in October 2024, an increase of 63% over the previous year, and the industry's share of exports continued to be high. Pickup truck exports accounted for 45% of total pickup truck sales from January to October 2024, reaching 47% in October 2024. China's independent pickup truck exports increased quite well.

4. Pickup truck power structure

The national NEV pickup market is gradually rising. With the popularity of Tesla pickups, China's new energy pickup trucks are also gradually developing on a large scale.

In 2024, sales of new energy pickups nationwide were 9,217 units, an increase of 58% over the previous year. In October, there were 1,045 new energy pickups, an increase of 64% over the previous year, forming a better trend than fuel pickups.

II. Characteristics of the sales area in the pickup truck market

1. Regional changes in the pickup truck market

The main regions of the pickup truck market are mainly in the northwest and southwest, and there is a high demand for pickups in the western region. Demand for pickups in the northwest region was strong in October. At present, demand for pickups in the southwest and northwest regions accounts for about 44% of total demand, making it the demand for the two major core markets. Among them, the southwest market is quite large this year.

The western market has maintained a relatively stable trend recently, and the eastern region has declined. Although the economy is active, there has been no significant growth in the pickup truck market in central and southern China.

Pickup is still relatively strong in the northern and western markets. This is also because the northern and western market economies are relatively inactive, mainly driven by planting and engineering construction.

The development of private passenger pickup trucks needs to be further strengthened. Pickup sales in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai have recovered to a certain extent this year, and the recent Great Wall Motor passenger pickup trucks are still worth looking forward to.

2. Pickup truck sales area analysis

The main sales area of the pickup truck market is still dominated by small and medium-sized cities and county and township markets, but the performance of the county and township markets in October was still relatively weak. Purchase-restricted markets such as large and medium-sized cities and Beijing performed well in October 2024. However, the county and rural markets continue to be stable, and the big city market currently has no obvious breakthrough characteristics.

The megacities market is gradually shrinking, and in the restricted city market, the Beijing market is performing well for pickups due to tight license plates. The performance of markets such as Shenzhen and Tianjin, which were relatively strong in the early period, is in a state of weakness. Chongqing and Chengdu performed relatively well. Hangzhou is a large market with a geographical area larger than Beijing, and its tea farmers' market is in good demand for pickups.

III. Competitive analysis of China's pickup truck market

1. Performance analysis of pickup truck manufacturers

The main manufacturers in the pickup truck market performed well in 2024. Great Wall Motor pickups maintained a strong position of absolute advantage. Changan Motor performed well in the foreign export market in October, JAC and Jiangling Motors showed strong trends in October, and SAIC Chase and Zhengzhou Nissan maintained a strong domestic dominant position.

With the surge in the pickup truck export market, SAIC Chase, JAC, and Changan pickup trucks have risen rapidly, forming the characteristic that leading companies are squeezing the sales volume of tail companies.

Recently, strong pickup truck manufacturers from large traditional groups have been very strong. In particular, SAIC Chase and others have shown outstanding export performance. Great Wall Motor's pickups have performed very well at home and abroad, and they are very active in launching new products. Jiangling pickup trucks are recovering fast. Compared to the new forces, SAIC Chase and Changan Auto pickups performed better.

2. Domestic share trends of pickup truck manufacturers

In 2024, the domestic retail pickup truck market still maintained its strong trend characteristics, but gradually began to show a trend of differentiation. Great Wall Motor's pickup truck sales are outstanding.

In October of this year, Great Wall Motor led the domestic sales share of pickup trucks by 50%. Jiangling Motors, Zhengzhou Nissan, Jiangxi Isuzu, etc. maintained a strong position. The competitive pattern in the domestic market is relatively stable. Recently, many manufacturers have strong export performance, so the pickup truck market is generally strong.

3. Export trends of pickup truck manufacturers

Great Wall Motor's pickup truck exports are still number one over the years, but SAIC Chase and Changan have performed extremely well in pickup truck exports. SAIC Motor's export base is good and its own export system is strong, so SAIC Chase's export growth is strong.

Recently, the growth rate of exports such as pickups has slowed, and export growth is being greatly affected by improved overseas supply and weakening demand.

4. Monthly sales trends in the pickup truck market

The main pickup cities in the country are currently in the southwest, northeast, and northwest regions such as Chongqing, Chengdu, Urumqi, and Harbin. Major cities such as Zhengzhou, Beijing, and Shenzhen have a certain scale of demand. Shenzhen has performed well recently.

5. Monthly regional trend of pickup trucks

In recent years, along with the upgrade of the national six, pickup truck product updates and iterations have accelerated. This year, pickup trucks have entered a period of market adjustment. According to pickup truck market tracking, Great Wall Motor has an absolute dominant position of nearly 50% in the country, and Great Wall Motor has an outstanding share in the northwest and southwest regions.

The total share of the top 3 pickup trucks reached 85%. Among them, Jiangling Motors performed well in the southwest and Yangtze River basins; Zhengzhou Nissan performed well in the northwest and southwest regions; and Jiangxi Isuzu performed well in the southwest and northwest regions.

In 2024, the increase will mainly come from the Southwest region and Northeast China market. Sales are mainly in the original fields of engineering construction, municipal electricity, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, wholesale and retail industries, as well as new customers such as high-end, passenger, and off-road vehicles.

As the aging of China intensifies, the aging trend of migrant workers is obvious, and there is a clear trend of migrant workers returning to their hometowns, driving the recovery of small cities, county and rural markets. The main models of traditional mainstream car companies have performed very well. Great Wall Motor's product innovation results are very good, and new products such as the King Kong Cannon have outstanding performance.