What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? Amongst other things, we'll want to see two things; firstly, a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an expansion in the company's amount of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. However, after investigating Wynn Macau (HKG:1128), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on Wynn Macau is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.19 = HK$5.5b ÷ (HK$43b - HK$15b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).
So, Wynn Macau has an ROCE of 19%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Hospitality industry average of 6.9% it's much better.
See our latest analysis for Wynn Macau
Above you can see how the current ROCE for Wynn Macau compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Wynn Macau .
Things have been pretty stable at Wynn Macau, with its capital employed and returns on that capital staying somewhat the same for the last five years. This tells us the company isn't reinvesting in itself, so it's plausible that it's past the growth phase. With that in mind, unless investment picks up again in the future, we wouldn't expect Wynn Macau to be a multi-bagger going forward. With fewer investment opportunities, it makes sense that Wynn Macau has been paying out a decent 50% of its earnings to shareholders. Unless businesses have highly compelling growth opportunities, they'll typically return some money to shareholders.
In summary, Wynn Macau isn't compounding its earnings but is generating stable returns on the same amount of capital employed. Since the stock has declined 67% over the last five years, investors may not be too optimistic on this trend improving either. In any case, the stock doesn't have these traits of a multi-bagger discussed above, so if that's what you're looking for, we think you'd have more luck elsewhere.
Wynn Macau does have some risks though, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Wynn Macau that you might be interested in.
If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.