For many, the main point of investing in the stock market is to achieve spectacular returns. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. Don't believe it? Then look at the Disco Corporation (TSE:6146) share price. It's 444% higher than it was five years ago. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. It's also up 13% in about a month. We note that Disco reported its financial results recently; luckily, you can catch up on the latest revenue and profit numbers in our company report.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
See our latest analysis for Disco
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Over half a decade, Disco managed to grow its earnings per share at 33% a year. So the EPS growth rate is rather close to the annualized share price gain of 40% per year. Therefore one could conclude that sentiment towards the shares hasn't morphed very much. In fact, the share price seems to largely reflect the EPS growth.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We know that Disco has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Disco the TSR over the last 5 years was 498%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
It's good to see that Disco has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 39% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. However, that falls short of the 43% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Disco you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.