Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Cansortium Inc. (CSE:TIUM.U) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for Cansortium
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2024 Cansortium had debt of US$67.6m, up from US$59.3m in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$8.48m, its net debt is less, at about US$59.1m.
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Cansortium had liabilities of US$111.6m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$67.2m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$8.48m as well as receivables valued at US$96.0k due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$170.3m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the US$54.3m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Cansortium would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
While we wouldn't worry about Cansortium's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.8, we think its super-low interest cover of 1.0 times is a sign of high leverage. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. However, the silver lining was that Cansortium achieved a positive EBIT of US$20m in the last twelve months, an improvement on the prior year's loss. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Cansortium will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. In the last year, Cansortium's free cash flow amounted to 41% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
To be frank both Cansortium's interest cover and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. Having said that, its ability to grow its EBIT isn't such a worry. We're quite clear that we consider Cansortium to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Cansortium you should know about.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.