Deutsche Bank said that despite recent polls favoring Trump's victory, market pricing remains cautious. Despite discussions on the “Trump deal” in the market, the market is still cautious about the extent to which Trump will win the election. Deutsche Bank illustrates this through the dollar in the foreign exchange market and the basket of S&P 500 index constituents that are most sensitive to tariffs. They believe that the decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate from 1.12 to 1.09 was mainly due to the repricing of the Federal Reserve's expectations after the release of strong US employment data. They also pointed out that the stock prices of the tariff-sensitive S&P 500 index constituent companies have been trending sideways, and only recently began to perform poorly, which is in line with recent poll trends. Deutsche Bank wrote, “The market has begun to price the increased probability of Trump winning the election, but the impact of this situation on market pricing is still quite small.”

Zhitongcaijing · 10/25 12:33
Deutsche Bank said that despite recent polls favoring Trump's victory, market pricing remains cautious. Despite discussions on the “Trump deal” in the market, the market is still cautious about the extent to which Trump will win the election. Deutsche Bank illustrates this through the dollar in the foreign exchange market and the basket of S&P 500 index constituents that are most sensitive to tariffs. They believe that the decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate from 1.12 to 1.09 was mainly due to the repricing of the Federal Reserve's expectations after the release of strong US employment data. They also pointed out that the stock prices of the tariff-sensitive S&P 500 index constituent companies have been trending sideways, and only recently began to perform poorly, which is in line with recent poll trends. Deutsche Bank wrote, “The market has begun to price the increased probability of Trump winning the election, but the impact of this situation on market pricing is still quite small.”