Analyst Palmas of KITU Macro said that although the German Institute for Economic Research's business confidence index rose in October, it is still in a deep recession range. She pointed out that given that economic growth in other countries in the Eurozone is also weak, this raised expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December. The IFO index and the composite PMI index are in line with the contraction of German GDP in October. Palmas said that although it is still too early, this indicates that Germany may face a third consecutive quarter of contraction in the fourth quarter. She added that tight fiscal policies and continued loss of industrial competitiveness could offset any boost from real household income recovery and monetary easing in 2025.

Zhitongcaijing · 10/25 12:17
Analyst Palmas of KITU Macro said that although the German Institute for Economic Research's business confidence index rose in October, it is still in a deep recession range. She pointed out that given that economic growth in other countries in the Eurozone is also weak, this raised expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December. The IFO index and the composite PMI index are in line with the contraction of German GDP in October. Palmas said that although it is still too early, this indicates that Germany may face a third consecutive quarter of contraction in the fourth quarter. She added that tight fiscal policies and continued loss of industrial competitiveness could offset any boost from real household income recovery and monetary easing in 2025.