Domestic mine production continues to decline due to domestic environmental protection and other factors. Among the main importers of bauxite, Guinea is the largest importer, accounting for 72% of imports and 23% of Australia's imports. On the demand side, the cumulative domestic production of electrolytic aluminum increased 5.1% year-on-year in January-August. Demand for alumina is steady, moderate and positive. Looking at the balance sheet of supply and demand, there are potential benefits in the fourth quarter. Currently, the downstream electrolytic aluminum industry is highly profitable, and downstream aluminum factories have not declined or stopped production. In addition, production was not reduced during the dry water period in Yunnan, and regions such as Xinjiang and Guizhou still added nearly 500,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. Judging from the potential shortfall in the past month, the resumption of supply in Guinea is a probable event, and short-term disturbances have gradually been calculated. At the same time, domestic alumina production is expected to be over 12 million tons in 2025. High profits will accelerate the recovery in supply and revise the supply and demand structure. Judging from the valuation, the current price ratio of electrolytic aluminum/alumina has reached 4.45, hitting a historic low. Overall, it is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset with the 11 and 12 contracts. Looking at the past month, the upstream industry may consider taking the opportunity to lay out 03 and more short monthly contract orders.

Zhitongcaijing · 10/21 12:25
Domestic mine production continues to decline due to domestic environmental protection and other factors. Among the main importers of bauxite, Guinea is the largest importer, accounting for 72% of imports and 23% of Australia's imports. On the demand side, the cumulative domestic production of electrolytic aluminum increased 5.1% year-on-year in January-August. Demand for alumina is steady, moderate and positive. Looking at the balance sheet of supply and demand, there are potential benefits in the fourth quarter. Currently, the downstream electrolytic aluminum industry is highly profitable, and downstream aluminum factories have not declined or stopped production. In addition, production was not reduced during the dry water period in Yunnan, and regions such as Xinjiang and Guizhou still added nearly 500,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. Judging from the potential shortfall in the past month, the resumption of supply in Guinea is a probable event, and short-term disturbances have gradually been calculated. At the same time, domestic alumina production is expected to be over 12 million tons in 2025. High profits will accelerate the recovery in supply and revise the supply and demand structure. Judging from the valuation, the current price ratio of electrolytic aluminum/alumina has reached 4.45, hitting a historic low. Overall, it is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset with the 11 and 12 contracts. Looking at the past month, the upstream industry may consider taking the opportunity to lay out 03 and more short monthly contract orders.