Hikal Limited's (NSE:HIKAL) Financials Are Too Obscure To Link With Current Share Price Momentum: What's In Store For the Stock?

Simply Wall St · 10/19 02:04

Hikal (NSE:HIKAL) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 14% over the last three months. However, we wonder if the company's inconsistent financials would have any adverse impact on the current share price momentum. Specifically, we decided to study Hikal's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

View our latest analysis for Hikal

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Hikal is:

5.7% = ₹678m ÷ ₹12b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every ₹1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn ₹0.06 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Hikal's Earnings Growth And 5.7% ROE

It is quite clear that Hikal's ROE is rather low. Even compared to the average industry ROE of 12%, the company's ROE is quite dismal. For this reason, Hikal's five year net income decline of 6.5% is not surprising given its lower ROE. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company's earnings prospects. Such as - low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

So, as a next step, we compared Hikal's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 15% over the last few years.

past-earnings-growth
NSEI:HIKAL Past Earnings Growth October 19th 2024

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Hikal is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Hikal Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Hikal's low three-year median payout ratio of 18% (or a retention ratio of 82%) over the last three years should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings to fuel its growth but the company's earnings have actually shrunk. The low payout should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings and consequently, should see some growth. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For example, the company's business may be deteriorating.

Moreover, Hikal has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth.

Conclusion

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Hikal. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. Wrapping up, we would proceed with caution with this company and one way of doing that would be to look at the risk profile of the business. To know the 3 risks we have identified for Hikal visit our risks dashboard for free.