What's in Store for Freeport-McMoRan Stock This Earnings Season?

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCX is set to release third-quarter 2024 results before the opening bell on Oct. 22.

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The mining giant’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 21.7%, on average. FCX is expected to have gained from higher copper prices and improved sales volumes in the third quarter.

FCX stock has gained 36.1% in the past year compared with the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s 46.1% rise.

 

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Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What do FCX’s Revenue Estimates Indicate?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Freeport’s third-quarter consolidated revenues is currently pegged at $6,460 million, which suggests a year-over-year increase of roughly 10.9%.

Factors at Play for FCX Stock

Freeport’s third-quarter results are expected to have been supported by the strength in copper prices. Copper prices surged to their highest level in more than two months in late September on improving demand in top consumer China, backed by the announcement of economic stimulus measures by the government of China to support the country’s sluggish property and construction sectors and the economy. Prices were also driven by the U.S. interest rate cut and expectations of another reduction in November. 

Copper prices have notched gains of roughly 13% so far this year, aided by supply concerns and improving China demand. Prices of copper were up nearly 4% in the third quarter. Our estimate for third-quarter average realized price for copper for FCX currently stands at $4.28 per pound, which indicates a year-over-year increase of 12.5%.

FCX’s second-quarter copper sales volumes were impacted by shipping delays in Indonesia, which were related to the timing of renewing PT-FI’s copper concentrate export license. The export license was granted in July 2024. Third-quarter volumes are likely to have improved sequentially with the resumption of normal shipping in July. FCX's efforts to increase operating rates and improve productivity are also likely to have aided its copper volumes in the quarter to be reported. The company is also expected to have benefited from strong milling rates in South America. Our estimate for consolidated copper sales for the third quarter is 1,010 million pounds, suggesting an increase from 931 million pounds in the prior quarter.

What Our Model Unveils for FCX Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Freeport this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Freeport is -1.15%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 40 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: FCX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM, scheduled to release earnings on Oct. 30, has an Earnings ESP of +4.69% and carries a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for AEM’s earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 96 cents.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF, slated to release earnings on Oct. 30, has an Earnings ESP of +7.08% and carries a Zacks Rank #1 at present.

The consensus mark for CF’s third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.05.

Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Nov. 5, has an Earnings ESP of +15.63%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 16 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

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Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM): Free Stock Analysis Report

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