Ballotpedia's Top 15 Races to Watch on Election Night

Trends include rematches of close races from 2022 and open seats available with incumbents opting out of re-election runs.

MIDDLETON, Wis., Oct. 18, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Ballotpedia's editorial staff will be covering thousands of races on election night for offices up and down the ballot. The organization's elections coverage team has selected 15 of those races that they see as  the most important, compelling, and competitive in the country.

"While the presidential election often captures the spotlight, it's crucial to remember that local and state races play a vital role in shaping our communities," said Cory Eucalitto, Ballotpedia's Managing Editor. "These elections determine the policies that directly impact our lives, from education and healthcare to infrastructure and public safety."

Ballotpedia's top 15 races to watch are:

U.S. House

• California 13th:  In a rematch from 2022, incumbent John Duarte (R) and Adam Gray (D) will face each other. In their last matchup, Duarte won by 564 votes.
• New Mexico 2nd: Incumbent Gabriel Vasquez (D) and Yvette Herrell (R) are running.  This election is a rematch of the 2022 election, which Vasquez won by a 1,350-vote margin out of more than 192,000 votes cast.
• New York 17th:  Incumbent Rep. Michael Lawler (R/Conservative Party), Mondaire Jones (D), and Anthony Frascone (Working Families Party) are running.  Race forecasters disagree on this race with two rating it a toss-up, one rating it tilting Republican, and one rating it leaning Republican. Jones was the incumbent for the New York 17th in 2022 but ran that year in a different district because of redistricting.
• Oregon 5th:  Six candidates are running, and this is the third rematch between Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) and Janelle Bynum (D) dating back to campaigns for the Oregon House. Voters in the district backed Joe Biden (D) by 8.8 percentage points in 2020. Chavez-DeRemer won in 2022 by 2.1 points.
• Washington 3rd:  Incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez (D) and Joe Kent (R) are running. The race has been referred to as one of the most competitive U.S. House races in the country and key to either side claiming a majority in January.

U.S. Senate

• Michigan:  Elissa Slotkin (D), Mike Rogers (R), and five others are running. Incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D), who was first elected in 2000, did not run for re-election. Democrats have won every U.S. Senate race in the state since 1994, and this is the first time there's been an open U.S. Senate race since 2014.
• Ohio:  Incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and Bernie Moreno (R) are running. Brown was the only Democrat to win a nonjudicial statewide race in Ohio over the last decade.

State Executive Offices

These races are two toss-ups out of 11 total gubernatorial elections in 2024:

• New Hampshire Governor:  Joyce Craig (D), Kelly Ayotte (R), and Stephen Villee (L) are running. Incumbent Chris Sununu (R) did not run for re-election. Three major analysts have all declared this race a toss-up. Ballotpedia has rated the New Hampshire trifecta as being highly vulnerable in its annual trifecta vulnerability ratings because of the toss-up status and tight margins in the legislative chambers.
• North Carolina Attorney General:  Jeff Jackson (D) and Dan Bishop (R) are running.  Incumbent Josh Stein (D) is running for governor of North Carolina. The outcome of this race could determine if North Carolina keeps its triplex status. 

State Supreme Courts

• Michigan:  Four candidates are running in two general elections. Andrew Fink and Kimberly Thomas are running for a full eight-year term. Incumbent Kyra Harris Bolden and Patrick W. O'Grady are running in a special election. Democrats currently hold a 4-3 majority in the court, but control could change. Also of note, each candidate running in this race has completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection Survey.
• Ohio:  Six candidates are running for three seats. Heading into the election, the court has a 4-3 Republican majority. If all three Democrats win the races, Democrats would have a 4-3 majority. If all three Republicans win the races, Republicans would have a 6-1 majority on the court. Republicans have held a majority on the court since 1986.

About Ballotpedia

Ballotpedia, the encyclopedia of American politics, is the nation's most trusted source of unbiased information on politics, elections, and policy. Founded in 2007, Ballotpedia has grown from a small group of dedicated volunteers working on a handful of ballot measures to an essential resource for voters, media, and researchers. Ballotpedia is a nonprofit organization dedicated to serving the public interest in creating an educated, engaged electorate, and building a strong, healthy democracy. For free access to 520,000+ encyclopedic, professionally authored, and curated articles, visit Ballotpedia.org.

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