People familiar with the matter: The Bank of Japan is in no hurry to raise interest rates right now!

Jinshi Data · 10/18 12:23

According to people familiar with the matter, Bank of Japan officials think there is no need to rush to raise interest rates this month, but they are still planning to raise interest rates at some stage in the future because inflation is in line with expectations.

These people familiar with the matter said that officials believe there is little risk that prices will significantly exceed the quarterly forecast made by the central bank in July, so there is no need to act quickly. They added that the Bank of Japan also needs to focus on the US economy and the possible impact of the US election on the economy and the market before taking the next step, as this is a source of other high uncertainties.

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate of 0.25% unchanged at the policy meeting ending on October 31. One concern is whether the bank is still likely to consider a third rate hike in December this year. This may depend on how clear the global economy is at that time.

These people familiar with the matter said that it is difficult to predict how quickly uncertainty in global financial markets and the US economy will subside, so the bank needs to review these factors at every meeting.

According to these people familiar with the matter, at this month's policy meeting, officials may discuss whether they can revise the July assessment, that is, the price risk for this fiscal year and the next fiscal year will rise. They said that although the yen recently depreciated against the US dollar, its rise from three months ago has helped mitigate the upward risk of inflation.

People familiar with the matter also said that the authorities also saw no need to make any major adjustments to the price forecast. They believe that the inflation trend is in line with their target for the second half of the three-year forecast period ending March 2027.

The people familiar with the matter added that there are less than two weeks until the next policy meeting, and the Bank of Japan has yet to make a final conclusion on the economic outlook report or monetary policy. The bank will keep a close eye on financial markets and data until the last minute of making a decision. According to data released on Friday, Japan's CPI rose 2.4% year on year in September. This is the 30th month in a row that this indicator has met or surpassed the Bank of Japan's target.