The three-year underlying earnings growth at Chacha Food Company (SZSE:002557) is promising, but the shareholders are still in the red over that time

Simply Wall St · 10/18 01:32

Chacha Food Company, Limited (SZSE:002557) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 18% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 34% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.

Since Chacha Food Company has shed CN¥549m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

View our latest analysis for Chacha Food Company

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Chacha Food Company actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 1.7% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

It looks to us like the market was probably too optimistic around growth three years ago. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.

We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 8.9% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Chacha Food Company more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SZSE:002557 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 18th 2024

Chacha Food Company is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Chacha Food Company, it has a TSR of -29% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Chacha Food Company shareholders are down 3.0% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 1.4%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 0.3% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. Importantly, we haven't analysed Chacha Food Company's dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you're thinking of buying.

We will like Chacha Food Company better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.