Soybean Analysis & Grains Overview

Overview

From the 10/3/24 Update,

The current rallies are showing signs of life in Soybeans, Corn and Wheat, however they have all run into key retracements above. In Soybeans it is a 23.6% retracement, in Corn it is a combination of 23.6% and 38.2% and in Wheat it is 38.2%. We will be watching the 38.2% levels on any setback to see if the trends will continue.

Soybeans

It traded at 1055.00 all week. It was unable to get a couple solid closes above it and there was no follow through on the downside. A setback from 1055.00 can still send this market to a new low, or a good test of it, so we will be watching the 78.6% level as a target. The 38.2% level below will be key to the rally continuing, just as it was at 1002.00.

Corn

This week's rally took it to the short term target of 429.00 (23.6%/38.2%), it has one close above it and it needs another to turn the intermediate trend positive. A setback back from here can send it to a new low, or a good test of it. We will now watch 38.2% below to see if the short term trend can remain positive.

Wheat

This week's rally hit the short term target of 612.00 and it has one close above it, but today closed right back below it, this is the level that needs to come out to turn the Intermediate trend positive. We will be watching the 38.2% level on any setback to see if the short term uptrend can continue, just like it did at 566.75 on 9/19/24.

10/17/24

What we are seeing right now in the Grains illustrates the importance of understanding the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. By knowing the potential from a certain retracement it will give you guidance as to what is possible and what changes that. We have said before that a retracement from a bigger range ($1.00 to $2.00) should have precedence over a smaller range (30 to 50 cents), however this is also why we say, "we watch every retracement on all moves to see just how weak, or strong the market is regardless of the longer term target."

When the Grains ran into the longer term retracements above, Soybeans 23.6%, Corn 23.6%/38.2% and Wheat 38.2% we know that to keep that trend intact (down/negative) it should go make a new low, but we are watching the retracements on this setback. Soybeans are at 78.6% of the rally, Corn is just above 78.6% and Wheat is the one holding 38.2% for now. A couple things to keep in mind are, failing to make a new low after hitting a key retracement above that comes in the area of a 78.6% retracement can be the start of the next Bull move (ONE44 78.6% rule) and holding 38.2% of a smaller move after hitting 38.2% of a much larger range above would be a strong sign for the market.

…………

10/17/24

Soybeans

November
From last week,

The high from the last update was 1055.25 and it failed to hold 38.2% at 1027.00, it needed to hold this level to say a new trend has been established. This can also send it back to a new low, or a good test of it, since it is coming off from a 23.6% retracement above at 1055.00.

Use the 1032.75 major Gann square as the swing point for the week.
 

Below it, the short term target area is the 984.00 major Gann square and 78.6% back to the low at 981.00, this also brings it back into the long term 78.6% level at 978.00. In the longer.....

It never got above the 1032.75 major Gann square and the break from the longer term 23.6% level (1055.00) has now taken it to and currently through the 981.00 (78.6%) to 978.00 short term target area and below the 984.00 major Gann square. It can have one close below 78.6%, but the next day should be back above it.

Use 981.00 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, getting right back above 981.00 (78.6%) will give us a short term target of 78.6% the other way at 1048.00 based on the ONE44 78.6% rule. The long term target is ….

Below it, there are only major Gann squares to watch for support and then use as the swing point when closed below, the next few are 936.00…..

……………….

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Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.

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