Is GC Biopharma (KRX:006280) A Risky Investment?

Simply Wall St · 10/17 21:36

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, GC Biopharma Corp. (KRX:006280) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for GC Biopharma

What Is GC Biopharma's Net Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of June 2024, GC Biopharma had ₩778.4b of debt, up from ₩580.1b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had ₩78.1b in cash, and so its net debt is ₩700.3b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
KOSE:A006280 Debt to Equity History October 17th 2024

How Healthy Is GC Biopharma's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, GC Biopharma had liabilities of ₩754.1b due within 12 months, and liabilities of ₩487.3b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had ₩78.1b in cash and ₩445.4b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total ₩718.0b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit isn't so bad because GC Biopharma is worth ₩1.93t, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Weak interest cover of 0.82 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.7 hit our confidence in GC Biopharma like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Worse, GC Biopharma's EBIT was down 26% over the last year. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if GC Biopharma can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, GC Biopharma saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

On the face of it, GC Biopharma's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least its level of total liabilities is not so bad. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think GC Biopharma has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with GC Biopharma .

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.