HBT Financial (NASDAQ:HBT) shareholders notch a 11% CAGR over 5 years, yet earnings have been shrinking

Simply Wall St · 10/17 13:32

The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the HBT Financial, Inc. (NASDAQ:HBT) share price is up 44% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. However, more recent buyers should be happy with the increase of 29% over the last year.

Since it's been a strong week for HBT Financial shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for HBT Financial

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, HBT Financial actually saw its EPS drop 8.3% per year.

Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

In contrast revenue growth of 8.6% per year is probably viewed as evidence that HBT Financial is growing, a real positive. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:HBT Earnings and Revenue Growth October 17th 2024

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on HBT Financial

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, HBT Financial's TSR for the last 5 years was 72%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

HBT Financial provided a TSR of 33% over the last twelve months. But that return falls short of the market. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 11% per year over five year. It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for HBT Financial (1 is significant) that you should be aware of.

HBT Financial is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.