Subdued Growth No Barrier To TOM Group Limited (HKG:2383) With Shares Advancing 27%

Simply Wall St · 10/16 22:04

The TOM Group Limited (HKG:2383) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 27%. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 6.1% over the last year.

Following the firm bounce in price, when almost half of the companies in Hong Kong's Media industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.7x, you may consider TOM Group as a stock not worth researching with its 3.3x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

See our latest analysis for TOM Group

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:2383 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry October 16th 2024

How Has TOM Group Performed Recently?

For instance, TOM Group's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on TOM Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is TOM Group's Revenue Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like TOM Group's to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 7.4%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 17% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 5.6% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that TOM Group's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On TOM Group's P/S

TOM Group's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that TOM Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for TOM Group you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).